One of the main themes of analysis of the Chinese slowdown is the trend of foreign trade. The interest derives from the enormous weight of the country in the sale and purchase of goods. In 2014, China's market share of global merchandise exports was 11,9% (first value in the world). On the import side, China occupies the second position in the world, with a share of 9,6%. According to the World Shipping Council, seven of the top 10 ports in the world by tons stored are Chinese. Furthermore, since 2008 China has been one of the most active countries in terms of measures to protect/support foreign trade.
In September, China's purchases of goods from abroad recorded the eleventh consecutive decline (-20,5% y/y); in the same month, exports fell by 3,8%, a value that appears to be recovering slightly compared to the previous months. The result of the trend of the two components (in dollars) is a sharp increase in the trade surplus. The slowdown in Chinese imports is particularly affecting Asian countries and raw material producers. China is currently experiencing a phase of profound change in the composition of its exports and imports.
Chinese productions are gradually shifting towards the final part of the value chain without however abandoning the intermediate productions. In the mid-60s, the share of intermediate products contained in Chinese exports reached 35%, while today the value does not exceed XNUMX%, which reflects a gradual replacement of external inputs with domestic production. One of the consequences of this phenomenon is the reduction in the value of manufacturing imports.
According to the latest Unctad data (2014) China has become the first country in the world for foreign direct investment flows (FDI) by surpassing the United States and covering a worldwide share of 10,5%. Over the past few years, the country has become one of the main destinations for FDI in R&D: between 2010 and 2014 it attracted 88 new R&D projects for a total amount of 5,5 billion dollars, about double what is arrived in the same time period to finance 91 FDI in R&D in the United States.
Among the various changes that China is facing right now, demography occupies a prominent place. The country is experiencing an unprecedented rate of population aging: in 1980 the median age was 22 years, today it is 34,5 years (in the United States it is 37 years). The phenomenon has significant economic, financial and social implications.
Attachments: Focus no. 35 – 19 October 2015.pdf
