La Central Bank of China already wanted to reassure the markets on Sunday morning: "Our commitment to support the economy does not change". The slowdown in credit in April is due "only to technical reasons", which have already been overcome. But the message shows concern about the consequences on the markets of the decline in growth of the Dragon: only 6% last month, a sharp deceleration compared to 6,8% in March and the target of 6,5% on an annual basis. In short, the Chinese economy continues to depend to a decisive extent on the investment trend, down to 10,5% in the first four months of the year against a forecast of 10,9%.
The tensions on the Asian markets are predictable another busy week, in line with the May tradition (“sell in may and go away”). Redemptions from equity funds have exceeded $90 billion year-to-date, including nearly $8 billion in the last five days alone. The S&P index in New York, as well as the Nikkei in Tokyo and the Eurostoxx index fell back below the values at the beginning of the year. The financial statements of Piazza Affari report a drop of 0,6%, the third consecutive week of decline.
The decline in share prices accompanied growing fears about the economy, only partially dispelled by the positive data on consumption in the USA. The operators' pessimism is confirmed by the unexpected race for US T-bonds: also thanks to the yield differential with respect to Japanese bonds and German Bunds (the spread is at 158, close to the maximum), US paper attracts private treasurers and central banks, including Japanese and European.
The attitude of the Swiss Central Bank, the first to have triggered the drop in rates below zero: in 2016, Berne invested more than 130 billion dollars in (decreased) equity securities, including more than 3 billion in Apple shares, down 35% since January.
Despite the warning issued at the weekend by John Williams, a member with voting rights of the Fed (“interest rates could go up in June”) the markets are not particularly worried in view of the meeting on 2 June.
In this frame, Italy is preparing to face the European exam. On Wednesday, the EU Commission will publish its "opinions" on the programs of all EU countries. Promotion is foreseen subject to the maneuver of the Renzi government, in the name of flexibility. But Brussels will need new corrections to hit the 1,8% deficit in 2017 to which Italy is committed.
On Friday evening, Standard & Poor's confirmed its rating on Italy's ability to repay its debt. The country remains classified as “BBB-” and “A-3″, with stable prospects. According to analysts, the recovery of the Italian economy will continue on the path already started, but growth estimates are lower than expected. The GDP will rise by 1,1% in 2016, the latest forecast was for a growth of 1,3%. The reduction also concerns 2017: +1,3% from the previous +1,4%. Ireland's report card was much more flattering, promoted to A3 by Moody's.
The balance of the currency markets, the tensions on the trade front (not least the German surplus) and the instability of the stock markets will hold the stage at the G7 summit to be held at the end of the week in Sendai in Japan.
Warren Buffett is once again in the spotlight on Wall Street. The Omaha sage is at the head of a consortium ready to challenge Verizon for control of Yahoo!. The offer for the former leading portal in the Internet world could arrive as early as the day.
The quarterly reports of AA Roma and Isagro are scheduled today in Piazza Affari. There is anticipation for the Trevi Finanziaria conference call: it will be an opportunity to get information on the next intervention by the multinational from Romagna at the Mosul dam in Iraq.
Arriving numerous coupons of small caps and AIM freshmen. Banca Finnat (0,01 euro), Boero Bartolomeo (0,13 euro), Cembre (0,46 euro), Credem (0,15 euro), DeA Capital (0,12 euro), Fidia (0,4. 0,025 euro), Isagro (0,03 euro, ordinary – 0,09 euro, special), Massimo Zanetti BG (0,25 euro), TXT e-solutions (0,0263 euro), Bomi Italia (0,04 euro), First Capital (€0,0058), Frendy Energy (€0,12) and Rosetti Marino (€XNUMX).
The highlight of the day is without a doubt the presentation of the business plan of the Bank which will arise from the merger between Banco Popolare (-18,36% this week, worst title) and Banca Popolare d Milan (-9.75%). Pierfrancesco Saviotti and Giuseppe Castagna will meet analysts and journalists in Piazza Meda in the afternoon to illustrate the institute's objectives, since its inception the "third force" of the system behind Intesa and Unicredit.
The advances on the eve include the 10% cut in the branches of the two institutes (today 2.500), 1.800 redundancies to be disposed of thanks to the use of voluntary exits between now and 2.019. By that date, the profits of the new bank could reach one billion euros.
Le banks they have been the ballast of Piazza Affari in the last week. In addition to the declines of the two candidates for the merger, at the bottom of the performance list are Monte dei Paschi di Siena (-13,43%) and Bper (-6,64%). Unipol was also down (-8,23%).
Conversely, some stocks in the sector shone luxury. At the top was Yoox NAP (+12,42%), followed by Salvatore Ferragamo (+9,86%) and Moncler (+8,48%). Prysmian (+7,57%) and Leonardo Finmeccanica (+2,89%) also performed well.
Spotlight on this morning up Rcs Media Group (-2,13% on Friday) after interest leaks from investindustrial, the private equity fund controlled by Andrea Bonomi. The hypothesis of a takeover bid, still to be defined, is rendered credible by the agreement with the bank creditors of the publishing house, which lowers the financial risk of the operation. But Bonomi's eventual entry into the scene hasn't moved Urbano Cairo, who has reiterated his no to an increase in his offer.
