The market is closing in on hikes at the top of central banks this week. Wall Street welcomes the Fed board that will open in a few hours with the new records of the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 index. Operators take for granted the start of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction plan, but believe less and less in a new rate hike within the year.
Meanwhile, Tokyo is preparing for the meeting of the Central Bank of Japan on Thursday with a robust increase: +1,3% on the reopening of the lists after the long weekend. The market does not mind the prospect of early elections (probable date, October 22) that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe intends to exploit to displace the opposition before a truly formidable rival emerges. In this context, it is obvious that even Japanese rates will remain unchanged.
In short, the rally continues to sail on the waves of abundant liquidity, without too much fear of the next mini-tightening by the ECB or the much more robust one that Mark Carney could impose on London.
It is the ideal climate for a qualitative leap in the Piazza Affari price list. The offer from Pirelli, the start-up born 142 years ago, could act as a detonator for the freshman boom. Meanwhile, Piazza Affari is preparing for another return: October will be the month of Monte Paschi.
Borsa Meteo signals good weather, even if Kim will hardly miss the opportunity to be heard, in his own way, by the UN assembly. Hurricane season isn't over yet.
Asian lists are still on the rise but, with the exception of Tokyo, the push has been reduced: Seoul -0,1% awaiting Pyongyang's moves. The Chinese markets were down slightly: Hong Kong -0,1%, CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,1%.
The dollar also slowed down: the euro rose to 1,1961 against the US currency. Gold fell 1% to $1.307 a barrel.
NORTHOP, A MISSILE SENDS US PRICE LISTS INTO ORBIT
New shower of records on Wall Street under the pressure of financial stocks. The main indices closed at new highs: Dow Jones +0,28% (fifth consecutive record), S&P 500 +0,15%. The Nasdaq also rose (+0,1%).
It is also the season of missiles even if, for once, we are not talking about Kim, alias Rocket Man, but about Orbital Atk, the manufacturer of missiles and rockets which jumped by 20% after the announcement of the takeover bid by Northrop Grumman, up 2,8%. The Washington-based company was bought for about $7,8 billion in cash. In the defense sector, Boeing (+0,8%) and Raytheon (+1%) also rose.
Leading yesterday's rise were banks, finance companies and more traditional areas of industrial activity in general. Caterpillar +2%, General Electric +2,2%.
THE COUPON BRAKES ENI, ORDERS IN RUSSIA FOR SAIPEM
Oil closes slightly higher in New York: Wti just above the symbolic threshold of 50 dollars a barrel (50,50 dollars), Brent at 55,44 dollars pending new data on crude oil reserves in the United States.
In Piazza Affari in the red Eni -2,5% which paid the detachment of the advance on the 0,4 euro per share coupon. Tonica Saipem (+1,5%) after Rosneft commissioned the group to conduct a technical and commercial feasibility study for the oil giant's petrochemical plant project in the easternmost region of Russia. Banca Akros believes that the study could lead to a contract for the construction of the plant.
MILAN BEST EUROPEAN SQUARE
It was another day of widespread increases for European stock exchanges. Among the macro data, the publication of the German confidence index, the Zew, stands out this morning. Futures signal a weak opening for today after yesterday Milan recorded an increase of 0,61% to 22.364 points, once again the best European market. Moderately positive Frankfurt (+0,32%), Madrid (+0,2%) and Paris (+0,3%).
Inflation in the Eurozone in August stood at 1,5% on an annual basis and 0,3% on a monthly basis. According to one of the chapters of the ECB's monthly bulletin, inflation in the euro area should in fact slow down and return below 1% at the beginning of next year.
In July, the balance of the Italian trade balance recorded a surplus of 6,560 billion euros, compared to a surplus of 7.795 billion in the same month of 2016.
Outside the Eurozone, London is also making progress (+0,52%) despite the impact on Ryanair (-2%) of the cancellation of 2 flights in the next six weeks.
BREXIT, 10 JOBS AT RISK IN THE CITY
Bank of England governor Marc Carney yesterday gave a speech to the IMF in which he argued that Brexit, a "unique example of deglobalisation," is likely to weigh on investment. For Carney "an increase in interest rates may be necessary over the next few months".
Around 10 jobs will be moved out of the UK or created overseas in the first few years of Brexit if Britain is denied access to the European single market. That's the result of a Reuters poll of 123 companies that employ the majority of workers in the City.
PORTUGAL RISES UP TO SERIE A. IRELAND ALSO ADVANCES
Wave of optimism on the debt market under the impetus of Portugal: Standard & Poor's, first of the big agencies, restored Lisbon to investment grade, citing the improvement in the economy and public finances after the 2012 debt crisis. The rating moved to BBB, with stable outlook.
The Italian secondary school gradually lost its edge in the second part of the session. The yield spread between 167-year BTPs and Bunds, although rising to around 17, remained at its lowest level since last August XNUMXth.
On Friday, Moody's raised Ireland's sovereign credit rating to A2 from A3, acknowledging faster-than-expected economic growth and the government's progress in getting public finances in order.
TELECOM, THE MINI STEW HYPOTHESIS IS LIKED
The TLCs advanced (Stoxx index +0,8%) thanks to the performance of Telecom Italia (+5,1% to 0,82 euro), by far the best blue chip in Piazza Affari. Il Sole 24 Ore on Sunday returned to talk about the spin-off of the transmission network: the newspaper reports that the company is working on a proportional spin-off of a part of the assets.
At the end of the spin-off, there should be two companies listed on the Stock Exchange and controlled by Vivendi at 23,94%: in the first, Tim of the network, which should also include Sparkle and Telsi (the two companies being examined for golden power ), the control would be taken over at a later stage by the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti; the second, Tim Servizi, should deal with the sale of telephone services.
For now, the Minister for Economic Development, Carlo Calenda, has announced the activation of the golden power law to limit Vivendi's room for maneuver in Telecom Italia. For Banca Akros the scenario drawn by the press over the weekend is "intriguing and certainly not improbable". Volumes almost four times the average of the last month.
In the meantime, contacts in the Defense sector continue on the Italy-France axis. The rise of Fincantieri continues (+1,4%) and Leonardo also gains share (+1,8%). Equita Sim confirmed the hold recommendation on both securities with target prices set respectively at 1 euro and 14,9 euro.
BANKS, THE GOVERNMENT IS STUDYING BONDS FOR NPLs
While awaiting Monte Paschi's return to Piazza Affari, work continues on the construction site of the Italian banks. The government is studying the possibility of including a series of measures in the budget law capable of helping banks to dispose of the stock of non-performing loans. Among the measures capable of limiting the growth of NPLs there would also be that concerning the introduction of a new category of bonds. The Italian Stoxx rises by 0,77%, the European one by 0,55%.
Unicredit and Bper Banca achieved an increase close to one percentage point (+0,9%). Intesa +0,6%: it will contribute to the recapitalization of Atlante 2 for 40 million, confirmed the president Gian Maria Gros-Pietro.
Banco Bpm (+0,18%) reduced earnings at the end. The managing director Giuseppe Castagna said over the weekend that 4 binding offers for the bancassurance should arrive by the end of the month. Edoardo Ginevra, head of the banking group's Npl, explained that a portfolio of 2 billion in non-performing loans is about to be put on the market. The same manager anticipates that the institute is working on the sale, assisted by state guarantees, of 3 billion euros of Npl: an operation to be completed in 2018.
Banca Ifis flew to a new all-time high of 44,34 euro, +2,2%. Since the beginning of the year, the gain is 69%. According to the data presented during the recent Npl meeting, the Italian market for problem loans could, in 2017, reach the record figure of 104 billion euros, almost six times the 17,3 billion in 2016.
Purchases in no particular order on the most overlooked stocks in recent sessions such as Generali (+1,24%) and Azimut (+1,37%).
STM FLIES THANKS TO THE CAC, FERRARI DOESN'T SUFFER FROM F1
Among the industrialists, Stm was also well bought in Italy (+2,56%) which yesterday joined the Cac-40 in Paris.
Progress FCA, which closed at 14,1 euros, up 1,6%. Ferrari also did very well (+2,4% at 93,9 euros) which resumed the race: Goldman Sachs recently started hedging the stock with a neutral rating and a target price of 110 euros. Exor +1,3%.
In luxury, Tod's +0,7% and Ferragamo +1,1%.
CALTAGIRONE PUBLISHER, THE OPA FLOPS. ESPRINET COLLAPSE
Esprinet is in free fall (-15,51%) which on Friday reduced its profitability targets for 2017.
The takeover bid on Caltagirone Editore launched by Chiara Finanziaria, vehicle of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, flopped. The offer closed with acceptances equal to 0,286% of the shares without achieving the objective of 90% of the publishing group's capital. In a note, Chiara Finanziaria declared that she did not avail herself of the right to waive the 90% threshold, therefore the offer is ineffective.
Leap by Isagro (+17,9%). Cementir rose by 6,8%, Mondo TV +2,7%.
