The good news comes from Asia. The talks between the two Koreas had an initial positive outcome: Pyongyang will participate in the next Olympic Games in South Korea with a high-level delegation, made up not only of athletes but of politicians, artists, journalists and various observers. Seoul will pay the bill for the trip. The Northern team will stay on a ship at anchor in Sokcho one hour from the games area.
The decrease in tension on the Korean front has favored the rise of the Stock Exchange: the Kospi rises by 0,2% despite the decline of Samsung (-1,9%), which is weighed down by the negative forecasts on chip sales after a record year.
The other news of the day comes from Tokyo: yesterday the Central Bank of Japan reduced the purchases of medium and long-term bonds (from 10 to 25 years) to 10 billion yen. It may be just a technical move but the market interpreted it as an early sign of Japan's Quantitative Easing amid the robust improvement in the economy. The reaction of the yen (+0,4% against the dollar) was immediate, but the Stock Exchange (+0,5%) nonetheless maintained its progress: the list returned to 1991 levels.
DOLLAR RISES, DOW JONES SLOWS DOWN
US price lists are slowing down, after having scored new highs during the session. The dollar rebounds for the second consecutive day and goes below the 1,20 threshold against the euro: the cross is 1,197. According to a statement from the CFTC, the government agency that supervises futures trading, bullish positions on the euro-dollar cross have never been higher in history.
Operators, waiting for the first results of 2018 (JP Morgan will publish the accounts on Friday) are wondering about the next moves of the Fed after the slowdown in the labor market: Raphael Bostic, governor of the Atlanta Fed, argued that for this year they will be two increases in the cost of money are enough.
OPRAH WINFREY ANTI-TRUMP? WEIGHT WATCHERS SALE +13%
After Oprah Winfrey's speech at Sunday's ceremony for the Golden Globes, the hypothesis of the candidacy of the most popular anchorwoman of US TV at the White House in 2020 spread: only a rumor, but enough to raise the Weight Watchers title, of which he is a shareholder and testimonial, by 13%.
First slight decline for the Dow Jones (-0,05%, in any case above 25 thousand points). S&P 500 +0,17%, Nasdaq +0,29%. The finance sector is lagging behind, awaiting the fourth quarter accounts: Wells Fargo and Citigroup -1%, GoldmanSachs -1,5%. Caterpillar is the top blue chip with 2,5% upside. General Electric is the worst: -1,7%.
US ANTI-DUMPING PUSHES TENARIS
Oil remains at its highest level since 2015, supported by tensions in the Middle East. Brent trades at 68,22 dollars a barrel, US crude at 62,22.
Positive in Piazza Affari Tenaris (+0,88%), even if below the highs reached during the session, in a market that continues to focus on anti-dumping measures in the USA. In particular, the results of the investigation by the US Department of Commerce are awaited on the impact of imports in the steel industry which, by imposing duties and quotas, could improve the price scenario for the company. Saipem is also positive (+0,5%).
IN PIAZZA AFFARI THE INCREASE IN 2018 IS 4,3%
The European stock exchanges, with the exception of London, consolidated the gains achieved with the rally at the beginning of the year, closing at their highest levels since the beginning of November. Both the drop in the euro, which has fallen below the psychological threshold of 1,20 against the dollar, and better-than-expected macro data, from retail sales to business confidence at its highest since 1985, are helping.
Piazza Affari increases last week's gains and closes at 22.845 points, at the top of the European stock exchange ranking since the beginning of the year with +4,3%. The Eurostoxx index is stuck at +3%.
Frankfurt +0,36% and Paris, +0,3%, slightly down Madrid (-0,12%); London is more backward (-0,36%).
GERMANY, THE NEW MERKEL GOVERNMENT CLOSER
Step forward for the government formation in Germany. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Conservatives and the SPD Social Democrats have reached an agreement to ease taxes on top incomes, according to a source, signaling progress in talks to form a coalition government. Less heavy taxation was one of Merkel's party's electoral promises and the initial agreement to raise the highest annual income tax rate by 60 euros suggests that the SPD is open to a compromise.
The ECB last week bought 2,495 billion euros of public sector debt after the Christmas break which saw a suspension of purchases from 21 to 29 December inclusive. Since the beginning of the month, the ECB has reduced the monthly pace of purchases to 30 billion euros from the previous 60 billion and intends to continue until at least the end of September.
BTP, THE SPREAD DOWN WAITING FOR THE AUCTIONS
BTPs closed a session with still limited volumes in positive territory, with a trend in line with the 'core' paper, which saw the 2-year reference rate return to just below the 10% threshold. The yield differential between the BTP and the Bund on the 155-year stretch stood at 156 basis points from 1,979 at the end of Friday's session. The ten-year rate fell to 1,995% from XNUMX% at the last closing.
In the next few days there will be a substantial offer of "paper" from the Eurozone: over 20 billion between Italy, Austria, the Netherlands and Germany. The annual Bot auction (7,5 billion euros) will be held tomorrow. Thursday The Ministry of the Economy will make available between 5 and 6 billion euros in 3- and 7-year BTPs at the auction scheduled for Thursday 11 January. In detail, between 2,5 and 3 billion of the October 2020 BTP will be offered, coupon 0,20%. Same offer range for the November 2024 BTP, coupon 1,45%.
THE NEW TELECOM PLAN IS LIKED
Telecom Italia took off in Piazza Affari in the afternoon (+1,90%), in the wake of the declarations of the Minister of Economic Development, Carlo Calenda, who reiterated that he is in favor of the separation of the network. Also, the market likes it the plan launched by the top: the company expects to save 400 million euros a year over the next three years, thanks to a personnel reorganization plan which provides for the exit of 5.000 employees, against the hiring of another 2.000.
THE AUTOMOTIVE RISES. MARCHIONNE ON THE 15TH IN DETROIT
The automotive sector is still strong: Fiat Chrysler +1,06% to 18,11 euros. On Monday 15th Sergio Marchionne will speak at the Detroit show and announce the date of the group's Capital Day. Ferrari (+1,39%) and Cnh Industrial (+2,05%) also continue to benefit from the renewed interest that has involved the entire sector in Europe since the beginning of the year.
Pirelli +0,97%. The recent positive reports have contributed to supporting the stock: UBS has started hedging with a buy rating and a target price of 8,5 euros, Exane Bnp Paribas confirmed the outperform opinion, raising the target price to 8,8 euros.
Among the industrialists, Leonardo is also worth mentioning (+1,63% to 10,57 euros): the focus of the market remains on the latest orders and on the industrial plan that the board of directors will approve on 30 January.
OK TO THE ATLANTIA TENDER OFFER
Atlantia's step forward (-0,59%) in the complicated Spanish campaign. The local Consob has announced that the offer presented in recent months by su Abertis remains standing and can go ahead because it satisfies the required requirements. In early December, two Spanish ministers had asked the stock market authority to withdraw the go-ahead for the offer, which was authorized in October by Spanish and European regulators.
BPM STAND OUT AMONG THE BANKS, FINECO AT THE HIGHEST
Banks in no particular order, with the Italian sector index slightly above parity. The brightest stock was Banco Bpm (+1,89%). Mediobanca (+0,79%) and Unicredit (+0,74%) were also on positive ground, on which Rbc Capital Markets raised the target price to 23,5 euros from 21 euros, confirming the Outperform recommendation. Ubi Banca (+0,26%) has launched a one billion euro covered bond divided into two tranches of 6 and a half years and 12 years of 500 million each. Negative only Bper (-0,14%) and Intesa (-0,28%). Creval stands out in the negative (-5,79%) pending the launch of the maxi capital increase and on the day of the reverse split of the shares in the ratio of ten to one.
Several new features on the managed front, grappling with the launch of Mifid 2. Azimut +0,19%. Over 1.300 employees participating in the shareholders' agreement completed the monthly share purchase plan at an average price of 15,86 euros.
Finecobank is sailing on the highs (-0,01% to 8,90 euros) after having touched the record price of 8,96 euros during the day. December net inflows it stood at 988 million euro; in all of 2017 it is at 5,958 billion.
Banca Generali (-0,72%) recorded a total net inflow of 634 million in December, bringing the figure for all of 2017 to 6,87 billion.
FERRAGAMO STILL SUFFERS
In luxury still suffering Salvatore Ferragamo (-1,23%). The opinion of Raymond James weighed on the stock, lowering the target price of the stock from 22 to 21 euro, confirming the market perform recommendation. For analysts, the stock may fall further considering that the consensus "is expected to gradually lower earnings per share estimates after the profit warning." In the worst case scenario” the stock could drop to 18 euros per share, “a level that could be interesting for potential buyers.
Brunello Cucinelli did well (+0,88%) which closed 2017 with revenues up by 10,4% to 503,6 million (+10,9% at constant exchange rates) and confirmed the expectations of “a nice double-digit growth in both turnover and profits”.
Piquadro also toned (+3,72%) after the publication of the turnover figure for the first nine months of the year.
FLY TECHNOGYM, HISTORIC AGREEMENT FOR DIASORIN
Technogym is making strong progress: +9,75% to 9.01 euros. Kepler Cheuvreux analysts have raised the recommendation on the stock from hold to buy and the target price from 7,7 to 9 euros, explaining that the growth in turnover and margins demonstrated up to now can continue in the next 2-3 years, thanks to the 'export and a mix of innovation and services for hotels and homes.
Leap forward by Diasorin (+4,23%) after the announcement of the partnership with Qiagen: the QuantiFeron-TB test developed by the US company (turnover of 140 million in 2017, target of 300 in 2020) will be added to the Italian group menu. “The economic impact of this collaboration – writes Banca Akros – will be very substantial in the medium term. We therefore confirm our accumulated rating and the target price of 80,30 euros".
