The Befana sweeps the Bull from Asian price lists. In Tokyo, where the first session of 2014 is about to close, the Nikkei index falls by 2,2% one hour after the closing. The loss of Hong Kong -0,8% was more modest (already in the red last week by about 3%). Since and January Thailand has lost about 7%.
But the negative note, destined to weigh on Wall Street and the European stock exchanges, concerns China. The Shanghai Stock Exchange lost 2% reflecting a disappointing figure for the PMI services index (just above 50). Over the weekend there were requests for 11 IPOs on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, China's Nasdaq. Another sign of the fluidity crisis that threatens Chinese finance.
The negative signals from the East fall on nervous markets, with the exception of gold and southern European sovereign debt. More cautious than expected on the equity front, slowing down after New Year's Eve. Thanks to the downward revision of Apple's estimates -3,4% by Wells Fargo or the drop in sales of GM (-3,4%) meant that S&P closed the first approach to 2014 down by 0,5 %, followed by the Dow Jones 0,1%: it hasn't happened since 2008 (the year of Lehman Brothers) that Wall Street started with a minus sign.
Two key events of the week: data on the labor market for December, scheduled for day 10; the quarterly of Alcoa which will kick off the accounting season on Thursday 9th.
The weekly balance sheet is also in the red for most of the European price lists. Frankfurt lost .6%, Madrid 1%. Followed by Paris -0,7% and London -0,3%.
The best, following the breakup of Fiat and Telecom Italia, was Milan +0,9%
FOR THE JANUARY TREASURY IT IS WORTH 20 BILLION
The positive note concerns the race for government bonds in the "periphery" of Europe. The spread between the Bund and the BTP decreased, reaching 197 basis points, down by six basis points compared to yesterday, the lowest since mid-2011. The BTP trades at a yield of 3,92% (-3 basis points), on lows since May.
This is the happy news at the start of the year for the Treasury which is about to face a fiery January. During the month, according to Citi forecasts, Italy will lead the list of issuers with an overall offer of 20 billion securities divided as follows: 7,5 billion Ctz and 3-year Btp; 4,3 billion of 5-year Cct and Btp; 2 billion for the new seven-year BTP; 3,5 billion Btp 10 plus 1,8 billion Btp 15 or 30 years and 1,2 billion bonds indexed to EU inflation.
Over the next 12 months, between 840-880 billion of securities will be issued in the euro area, a slight decrease compared to 2013. Italy will raise at least 250 billion against maturing issues of 194 billion. In addition to the deficit and payment of outstanding securities, the Treasury will have to pay the public administration's outstanding debts (20 billion) and the last tranche of funds for the ESM (2,85 billion).
BRAZIL, THE TRUTH ARRIVES BY PHONE
Spotlight on Telecom Italia +6,9% on Friday. By the start of negotiations, Telefonica will have to tell the market its truth about the maneuvers concerning the fate of Brazil Telecom. Indeed, Friday's rally was triggered by calls on an offer for assets in Brazil promoted by Banca Pactual and other financial partners behind which Telefonica is supposed to operate. Tim Brazil, according to this reconstruction, would then be divided into three sections to be sold to Oi (Portugal Telecom), Claro (Carlos Slim) and Vivo (Telefonica).
The Italian company reiterated on Friday that it was not aware of any offer” for the Carioca subsidiary and “reaffirms, once again, the strategic nature of the Brazilian asset”. Telefonica, for its part, has already pulled back from any operation "concerning the presence of Telecom Italia in Brazil".
Beyond the denials, the market is betting on Telefonica's next initiatives to untie the Brazil knot. However, the price will be crucial. Only a super offer could avoid a clash with a large part of Telecom Italia's shareholders, starting with Marco Fossati's Findim. The experts of Banca Akros and Equita Sim confirmed their "hold" judgment on the company. The target price of the former is 0,65 euro, that of the latter 0,75 euro.
FIAT, WAITING FOR THE DETROIT SHOW
Again in evidence Fiat, in the week preceding the Detroit motor show, the occasion of the first public outing of Sergio Marchionne after the Chrysler super deal. After the initial euphoria, market judgments are divided between the more cautious, who want to wait for more precise indications on the Lingotto industrial plan, and those who in any case promote the Turin-Detroit merger.
Kepler-Cheuvreux analysts (reduced opinion with a target price of 5 euros), believe the operation is unlikely to be sustainable in the medium-term. On the contrary, Equita (buy rating with target price of 7,9 euro) and Banca Akros (revised rating from accumulated to buy with target price raised from 6,2 to 7,5 euro), believe that the agreement is in itself a positive element. As regards the market, auto sales in the USA grew by 6% in the last month of 2013, registering the best December since 2007, but slightly below expectations.
In 2013, meanwhile, sales of new vehicles in Brazil fell for the first time in ten years, recording a decline of 0,91% to 3,767 million units. Fiat remains the market leader with a 21,34% share. Moody's, meanwhile, confirmed the 'B1' rating on Chrysler after the acquisition by Fiat of the share it does not yet own with a stable outlook.
BANKS: MPS, GUZZETTI SPEAKS
The Siena question returns to the fore. Two problems to be addressed in the next board of directors: the resignation of Alessandro Profumo, who could return in the face of pressure from the Treasury and the Foundation; 2) the search for a buyer for part of the stake held by the Foundation who would like to obtain a price of 0,24 euro to be able to participate in the capital increase and maintain a stake of between 6 and 7 percent. But the consortium of Foundations lost the Compagnia di San Paolo and, perhaps, Cariverona along the way. The heart of the consortium, enriched by the potential interest of some international investors, is made up of the Cariplo Foundation and Cr. Florence.
Meanwhile, the decline in the yield of the BTP has favored the performance of the sector: Unicredit +1%, Intesa +1,5%, Banco Popolare +2,7%, Ubi Banca +2%, Pop. Milan +3%.
In asset management, Azimut +1,8% on new records, while Mediolanum lost 0,3%.
UNIPOLSAI DEBUT, ENI BUYBACK UNDERWAY
The Magi bring the debut of UnipolSai, the group born from the merger by incorporation of Unipol Assicurazioni, Milano Assicurazioni and Premafin into Fondiaria-Sai, as a gift to Piazza Affari.
Meanwhile, Eni's treasury share buyback program will kick off this morning +1% according to the terms already communicated to the market. The buyback, managed by Ubs, will be completed by April 130th. The transaction is preparatory to the sale of securities by the Treasury. In fact, thanks to the buyback, the stake held by the public partner will rise to 33%. It will thus be possible to sell the 3% without falling below the threshold of the Public Offer.
CIR PLAYS IN ADVANCE ON THE DEBT. AND BLESS THE PRAISE
Spotlights also on Cir +3,2%, committed to stemming the effects of the Sorgenia crisis. On Friday, De Benedetti's holding company informed the trustee of the 2004-24 loan that it was ready, if requested, to repay the debt (259 million), thus anticipating the consequences of non-payment of the installments and interest by Sorgenia, which obtained a debt moratorium (1,75 billion) from the banks. The repayment operation, specifies a note, "would not affect the net financial position which would in any case maintain cash availability at the holding level in excess of 350 million" thanks to the proceeds of the Mondadori award.
