And who would have imagined such a rally in Piazza Affari three days after the shipwreck of Matteo Renzi? Waiting, moreover, for good news on Monte Paschi? Perhaps only some technical analysts, impressed by the violence of the downturn. And Raffaele Ierusalmi, number one of Borsa Italiana, who on the eve of the vote had noted that "there are colossal short positions on Italy in the USA and in countries where there are large investors". Certainly not the authoritative Financial Times which predicted the bankruptcy of at least eight banks in the event of a no victory. On the contrary, under the impetus of the coverage of speculation enriched by the discounts, yesterday we witnessed a triumphal march of the banks in Piazza Affari: +9%, which made possible a leap in the Milanese list of 4%.
The explanations? "Looking at yesterday's powerful rise in Piazza Affari - is Intermonte's opinion - one comes to the conclusion that investors were not lined up for the Yes, but for the conclusion of a long phase of uncertainty in which everything in Italy had stopped pending the referendum".
"After the announcement of Matteo Renzi's resignation, the opinion of an interim executive seems to prevail in the operating rooms, with the task of reforming the electoral law to defuse the risk of a victory for the unknown Movimento Stelle", notes the Reuters agency. The hypothesis was confirmed in the words of the president Sergio Mattarella. Even more important, the confirmation that the solution to the Monte Paschi crisis, almost certainly at the expense of the State, will not lead to new bloodletting for the accounts of the other banks.
In any case, the reaction from Piazza Affari confirms the "crazy" trend of 2016, the year of Brexit and the triumph of Donald Trump.
DOW JONES SETS NEW RECORD, AUSTRALIA HOLDS BACK
After the historic leap in Piazza Affari (+4,2%) Meteo Borsa predicts favorable winds arriving tomorrow from Frankfurt, on the occasion of the ECB meeting. The Italian rebound also had its effects on Asian stocks this morning: Tokyo's Nikkei index rose by 0,7%, Hong Kong +0,6%, Shanghai +0,4%, Seoul +0,1% and Mumbai +0,1%.
Sydney +0,9% despite an unexpected setback in GDP, which fell by 0,5% in the third quarter. Thus growth was interrupted after 5 and a half years, the data with the plus sign. The US Stock Exchanges are always tonic. The Dow Jones index (+0,18%) marks yet another record at 19.251,3 points. The S&P 500 (+0,34%) and the Nasdaq (+0,45%) are also in positive territory.
SOFTBANK OFFERS TRUMP 50 BILLION IN INVESTMENTS
Donald Trump's activism continues: yesterday the president-designate rejected the order for the renewal of the White House aircraft fleet with a tweet: the new Boeing 747 "costs too much, cancel it!". Boeing stock, after an initial slide, closed with a slight gain.
The president also met at the Trump Tower with Masayoshi Son, the Japanese tycoon of Softbank (+5,1% in Tokyo) who has just launched, thanks to Saudi capital, a 100 billion dollar technology investment fund. Masayoshi has promised that half of this figure, ie 50 billion dollars, will be destined for the USA. In return, Trump has pledged to buy T Mobil by Sprint, the tycoon's American company, a deal already blocked by the authority.
The rise thus extends to TLC stocks: At&t +1,86%, Verizon +1,23% on the day of the announcement of the sale of a portfolio of 24 sites for data management and storage. Price paid by the buyer, the Equinix real estate fund: $3,6 billion.
The march of financial stocks continues, up 15% since the day of Trump's election: Wells Fargo rises by 2,2%, new highs for Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. The macro data of the day was positive. Orders of durable goods rose by 4,6% in October, from +4,8% in September and against the +3,4% expected by the consensus. Factory orders registered a 2,7% increase, just above estimates. Before the start of the negotiations, data on the trade balance had been published: the trade deficit widened to -42,6 billion dollars.
FIRST OIL REDUCTION AFTER OPEC AGREEMENT
Oil prices are down for the first time in a week: Brent at 536 dollars a barrel, Wti just above 50 dollars. Both OPEC and non-OPEC countries, in view of the Vienna agreement, pumped to the maximum in November, reaching levels not seen in the last thirty years. With such levels of production, the risk of flooding the markets increases. In Piazza Affari, the oil companies, regardless of the decline in crude oil, closed up: Eni +1,9%, Saipem +3,7%.
MILAN (+4,1%) ALSO CANCELS BREXIT
The market spotlights are focused on tomorrow's meeting of the European Central Bank. Milan has burned all the primates. Not even two days after the outcome of the referendum, the Ftse Mib closed at 17.758 points, up 4,15%, clearly outpacing the other lists of the Old Continent. Volumes in the finale exceeded 3,4 billion euros. The main index of Piazza Affari reaches its highest level since 24 June, reducing the 2016 loss to 17%, however it is the worst in Europe.
Only Madrid (+2,71%) tried to keep pace. Paris (+1,35%9, Frankfurt (+0,89%) and London (+0,44%) remained furthest away.In Europe, the best sectors were Banks (Stoxx by sector +4,3%) and Utilities (+2,7%).
SPREAD DOWN TO 158 POINTS, 4,75 BILLION BOTS AT AUCTION
The spread also contracted sharply, falling below 160 basis points, closing at 158,315. The 2-year yield fell below 12%. In the auction on Monday 4,75 December, the Ministry of the Economy will make 12 billion 5,5-month BOTs available to investors against the XNUMX billion maturing.
UNICREDIT SPAZIALE (+12%) LEADS THE REFUND
It is difficult to trace such an exhilarating day for Italian banks in the past: after the tremendous downward pressure which has so far characterized 2016, the time has come for hedging (and, for speculators, for the collection of profits). Leading the race is Unicredit (+12%). Time is running out for the sale of Pioneer to Amundi (Crédit Agricole) to be closed before the presentation of the updated business plan and the announcement of the capital increase scheduled for the 13th. Liquidity (325 million euro) including in Amundi's offer, it seems destined to flow into a detached extraordinary dividend in favor of Unicredit.
Other bank stocks also rebounded: Intesa +8%, Ubi +9%, Banco Popolare +9%, Mediobanca +9,9%. Banks also rose in Paris with Société Générale +6,5% and BnpParibas +5,6%. Deutsche Bank advances by 7,9%. Asset management is brilliant. Anima Holding +2,6%: Pioneer operation vanished, according to Mediobanca Securities, "a merger with Aletti Gestielle is once again a very probable option". Banca Mediolanum +4,8%, Fineco +4,5%, Poste Italiane +3,5%.
GENERALI +5,1%: FOR AKROS THIS IS THE BEST INSURANCE
No less effervescent Generali (+5,16%) Banca Akros improved the stock recommendation from accumulate to buy, with the target price going from 13,4 to 14,4 euros. Analysts have improved their estimates and defined the strategic guidelines presented on November 23 by the group as "convincing", deeming that the action is "interesting at current stock market prices, which fully discount the political uncertainty in Italy and the risk of overhang in case Mediobanca decides to reduce its share”. Furthermore, “compared to its competitors, the Lion stock is both the insurer with the lowest valuations and the player with the highest dividend yield” .
MONTE PASCHI: THE TREASURE TOWARDS THE PURCHASE OF BONDS
Monte Paschi also closed on positive ground while waiting for plan B to be triggered, made necessary by the probable renunciation of Qatar to subscribe to the Bank's capital increase. "The (Italian) authorities are prepared and ready to move if necessary" assured the vice president of the EU Commission Valdis Dombrovskis.
During the day, the direct intervention of the State took shape also because the European Central Bank does not seem to want to give the Sienese bank any more time beyond the end of the year. The purchase by the Treasury of MPS subordinated bonds for two billion is taking shape today in the hands of small private investors. The Ministry of the Economy could convert those bonds into shares and thus take control of the bank in the hope that its intervention could convince other Italian and international private investors.
GERMAN JUDGES PUSH UTILITIES
Utilities are also making a big recovery. The increase was triggered by the decision of the German Constitutional Court, which recognized the right to compensation in favor of companies that owned nuclear plants, closed due to the Berlin government's decision to abandon too risky a technology. EOn gains 4,9%, Rwe +1,4%.
In Milan Enel advanced by 4,9%, A2A +6,4%, Snam 4,5%, Atlantia +4,1%. Telecom Italia is also on positive ground +2,57%: JP Morgan has revised upwards the target price on the TLC from 0,85 to 0,90 euro, confirming the neutral recommendation.
THE INDUSTRY ADVANCES, MOLMED HIGHLIGHTS
Confirmation of the rise in industrialists: Fiat Chrysler +2,4%, Leonardo +2,1%, Buzzi +3,3%. Positive luxury: Moncler +4,2% and Tod's +2,6%. Among the stocks with lower capitalization Tiscali flies (+14,2%) after the strategic agreement with Fastweb.
Molmed also flies (+7,28%): the biotech company presented data from preclinical studies conducted on the CAR-CD44v6 immune-gene therapy project at the annual conference of the American Society of Hematology, which are very positive.
