The relative calm that has reigned on the Stock Exchange in recent weeks has allowed most people to follow a much more agitated market: that of player transfers. The transfer market has depopulated the media throughout the summer, including the financial pages, due to the impressive surge in the price of players. Everyone knows by now that Paris Saint Germain bought the famous Neymar da Silva Santos Júnior, known as "Neymar", from Barcelona for the crazy sum of 222 million euros. In total, the sum disbursed by PSG to secure the young Brazilian striker amounts to 572 million spread over 5 years: the "transfer of the century" logically set fire to spirits and animated summer conversations.
But it's not so much Neymar's price that raises questions as its consequences on other operations. Once this new standard is established, transfer cash flows take off. French striker Ousmane Dembélé, 20 years old and scored 6 goals in 32 games last year, was transferred from Borussia Dortmund to FC Barcelona for 105 million euros. In total, European clubs disbursed over 5 billion during the summer transfer market1, a figure almost double compared to 2015. Neymar's sensational coup shatters the previous record of 105 million paid in 2016 by Manchester United to sign the French Paul Pogba, distancing the 75 million paid in 2001 for the star Zizou is a lot, a record that remained untouched for 8 years.
How much are footballers really worth? Let's give some numbers to try and answer the summer's catchphrase: one Neymar (3,26 million euros per kilo) = two Pogbas, five Olympique Marseilles or two Airbus A320s. Is it reasonable to value a player over 200 million euros? “Certainly”, some will say: Neymar is a planetary brand visible up to the borders of China that will explode the team's audience and the sale of shirts. “Not really”, answer the neophytes who will rightly point out that such sums for a single man have no equivalent in the real economy.
Those who have good memories will have a third reading. The inflation of investments, the forecast of a strong increase in audiovisual rights, a little accounting creativity – the transfer of the French Kylian Mbappé in the form of a loan with an obligatory purchase option for 145 million euros (plus 35 in bonus) – , the absence of regulation, intense media pressure…: here are all the ingredients of a bubble to come! The end of the 90s is not that far away and similar behaviors are well known to stock traders.
There are those who take the opportunity to point out that the valuations of GAFA2 also record astounding records, such as APPLE, which rises by +54% over a rolling year, reaching a capitalization of almost 850 billion dollars. But a single figure is enough to illustrate the real creation of value generated by the digital economy: in the second quarter of 2017, FACEBOOK's profits increased by 70% reaching 4 billion dollars. In just one quarter, the company generated more earnings than in all of 2015 ($3,6 billion). To maintain the same pace of growth as FACEBOOK, Neymar should score at least 156 goals this season, which is four times as many as in the 2014/2015 season (39 goals).
The fourth industrial revolution is underway and is destined to extend far beyond the horizon of a football star.
