La Befana has brought a gift of 500 billion to the international banking system. The central bank governors who are part of the committee on banking supervision have in fact decided to give banks more time to meet the liquidity parameters imposed by Basel 3: the new rules will enter into force on 2015 January 60 but only with a coverage of 100 % of resources needed to deal with a possible period of stress. It will gradually increase to 2019% by January XNUMX, XNUMX.
In essence, banks will have more time to build up their liquidity reserves (called LCR, liquidity coverage ratio) so that part of the available assets can be directed to support the real economy. In addition, the previously excluded shares and mortgage backed securities (debt securities guaranteed by mortgage loans) may also be included in the additional liquidity required by Basel 3.
Compared to the initial text, the lower liquidity requirements will allow banks to put 500 billion more into circulation in the economy. Another shot in the arm concerns US banks. It was decided to postpone for at least two years the application of the provision of the Dodd-Frank law, which required institutions to separate the assets protected by deposit insurance from derivatives.
Long awaited in Europe for the reaction of the banks to the news of the weekend: the banking index has risen by 63% since last July. Until mid-September it did much better than the market, then moved in line. The two "gifts" of the Epiphany did not provoke significant reactions in Asia. Eastern markets this morning opened under the banner of profit-taking after last week's leap forward. Tokyo -0,55% is about to close in negative territory, like Hong Kong -0,33%. The most significant losses are accused, in Seoul, by Samsung - 1,3% and by Lg. The two groups were sentenced to a hefty fine in China for creating a price cartel of liquid crystals for video displays.
Gold bounces back to 1660 dollars an ounce after Friday's slide to 1.631 dollars, on the lows of August. Futures on the S&P index are down slightly. Wall Street indices closed the first week of 2013 up 2,8%, in the wake of the positive data on new jobs (255 more) . As noted by the New York Times, $1.000 invested in March 2009 (at the low point of the post-Lehman crisis) is now worth more than $2000.
The S&P 500, up 0,5%, hit 1.466,23 points, its highest level in five years. The index returned to pre-crisis and pre-Lehman Brothers levels for the first time: the S&P 31 has not closed at such high levels since December 2007, 500.
Here are Friday's closes: Dow Jones +0,33%, S&P500 +0,49% and Nasdaq +0,04%. The Eurostoxx 600 index closed the week at its highest level since February 2011. Piazza Affari is looking for confirmation after the start of the boom. The Ftse/Mib index, at its highest since March 21st, achieved an overall gain of 4,2% in just three sessions.
ITALY/BTP
At what level will the spread stop? The most convincing answer will come with theand first Treasury auctions of 2013: on Thursday it will be the turn of 12-month Treasury bonds, the following day for medium-long maturities. This morning there will be an initial indication of the Treasury's strategies, with the communication of the amount of bonds offered.
The Treasury will be able to choose whether to: a) reduce the total amount as possible given the improved trend in borrowing requirements. According to Nomura, placements will not exceed 62 billion. b) take advantage of the situation favorable to the debt of the "periphery", anticipating issues before the electoral campaign and the possible uncertainties after the vote do not weigh on the volatility of the debt.
Furthermore, both parties agree on the fact that the Treasury will aim to increase the duration of the debt stock: certainly in recent months there will be more room for ten-year BTPs (minimum 12 billion) and for CTZs at the end of 2014 (minimum amount 9 billion). Securities for over 80 billion will mature in the first quarter.
EUROPE / DEBT
The yield on 10-year UK gilts hit 2,118% on Friday, just above the same-maturity French Oat (2,116%). It is the confirmation of the difficulties of the British chessboard, rather than the good state of health of the Paris accounts. But, above all, it is a new sign of the markets' renewed confidence in the solidity of the euro.
Danish bonds also suffered: from -0,3 to +0,2%. In the meantime, the exit from safe havens is picking up speed within the Eurozone: the German Schatz, already with a negative yield, traded on Friday at 0,094%, its highest level since the end of October.
Still in recovery. Finally, the bonds of Greece. The 15-year spread with Germany drops by 942 basis points to 11 and the yield slips below 10,95% (2011%) for the first time since February 3. The 700-year spread fell to 10 bps for a yield that broken down by 9,45% (2011%), the lowest since May 25. It was XNUMX% in June.
IN THE PLACE OF BUSINESS
In the spotlight, first of all, Monte Paschi after Friday's exploit (+12%). But bank stocks. Already protagonists of a brilliant session at the weekend, they should now react to the news coming from Basel. We start again, however, after the leap of the last session: B. Pop. Milan + 5% MontePaschi + 12% Where's Banca+ 0,8% Banco Popolare+ 1,6% Mediobanca + 1,8%.
The big names in the sector are less effervescent: Understanding +0,7% and Unicredit +0,5%. Among the insurance companies Generali stops on parity, good Fondiaria Sai +4,1%. Another hot topic Fiat +1,6% which still points to the Chrysler effect in which it will soon rise to 65,7%. High praise from the Financial Times for Sergio Marchionne's results and management style.
In attsto confirmation Tod’s + 4%, which on Friday touched 100 euros for the first time in its stock market history. Attention also for the Pesenti group, protagonist of a leap forward in the final of the week: Italcementi +6,4% and Italmobiliare + 5,3%.
