Launch launched on the Stock Exchange of Intesa Sanpaolo (+2,44% to 1,82 euros), blessed on Friday evening by green light to the public exchange offer with Ubi by the European Supervisory Authority. The ECB's prior authorization for the direct acquisition of a controlling stake, equal to at least 50%+1 share of the Lombard bank's capital does not come as a surprise in itself, but the OK, which comforts Carlo Messina, is arrived on schedule, confirming that Frankfurt looks favorably on the operation, which will now have to face other probably more insidious steps.
In fact, before touching the finish line, the operation will have to achieve authorization from Consob of the information prospectus of the Ops, and those of theAntitrust and Ivass linked, among other things, to the dissolution of the knots linking the bancassurance activity of Ubi with Cattolica Assicurazioni. In particular, Intesa communicated that, although it does not have information on the possible effects deriving from Covid-19, it believes that these are not such as to negatively affect the Ubi Group. Consequently, according to Ca'de Sass, the objection advanced by the lawyers of the "prey" according to which the outbreak of the pandemic has changed the conditions of effectiveness of the offer should be dropped.
But more than the legalities and regulatory background, it is evident that the battle will be decided on financial grounds in a new framework, favorable to the revitalization of the banks, a necessary element to restart the economy thanks to the ammunition that the European Union is about to put into circulation. Hence an underground battle to win the favor of large institutional shareholders, starting with BlackRock, one of the most important partners of Intesa. But you will also have to deal with the partners who, from Bergamo to Brescia but without neglecting the solid Piedmontese component, make up the hard core of Ubi. It is not difficult to foresee the launch, on both sides, of an intense activity of "moral suasion" which could reserve surprises. And this morning's purchases on Ubi, up 4,4 percent shortly after 11 am, confirm that speculation is taking a stand to exploit the situation
Meanwhile, under the pressure of the ECB's decisions, the sector is experiencing the hoped-for and repeatedly postponed resurrection. Three of the four most bought stocks this morning (Bper, Mediobanca as well as Ubi itself) belong to the sector.
The index Ftse Italian Banks gains over 3%% and reaches new highs since the beginning of March at 7.305 points; today's is the twelfth rise in thirteen sessions.
Last week was the best since 2011 for Italian banks, with an overall progress of 15%. The movement has involved all banks in the euro area thanks to the progressive recovery of activities and above all to the expansion of the Pepp program beyond expectations. The prospects, barring temporary (and perhaps healthy) corrections, are indeed very favourable: despite the strong rebound, the sector's loss since the beginning of the year is still over 20%.
