The Germans are the first to admit that their electoral campaign for the September 24 vote is a bit "boring" and that Angela Merkel - who will be engaged in the expected televised duel with Social Democratic candidate Martin Schulz on Sunday - will certainly be confirmed as Chancellor for the fourth time. But if the outcome of the German political elections seems obvious, the aftermath is much less so: who will be Merkel's CDU's main government ally? Still the SPD or the liberals? And what effect will Merkel's re-election have on European politics? These are issues that concern Italy very closely both for the prospects of the European construction site and for economic and immigration policies. That's why on the German vote FIRSTonline interviewed Regina Krieger, Rome correspondent of the German business newspaper Handelsblatt that she knows very well the political reality of Germany but she also knows our country very well. Here are her answers.
All polls on the German elections of 24 September agree that Angela Merkel will win back hands down and win the Chancellor's seat for the fourth time, while her party – the Cdu – will reconfirm itself with a large advantage as the leading party in Germany with a percentage that could approach 40%: barring unpredictable surprises, the games seem to be done and the questions move on to future government alliances. Will Merkel ally once again with the social democrats or will she switch sides in favor of the liberals?
“The 40 percent consensus for the CDU is a little further away now than it was a few weeks ago. And many Germans (about 46%) still haven't decided how to vote. This is why next Sunday's televised duel – the only one – will be decisive. According to the latest polls this week, the CDU has dropped to 37%, which will still not be enough for it to govern alone. The next German government will be a result of mathematics: a "black-yellow" coalition of the Cdu-Csu with the liberals will exist only if the votes and seats won by the two parties are sufficient. A majority expressed by a "Jamaica coalition" of CDU, liberals and greens would seem more feasible, but which however has problems of political understanding. This time the net majorities will be more difficult, because in addition to the liberals and greens there are also the Linke and the Afd, therefore six political forces. That's why an encore of the "grand coalition" is therefore very likely. In any case, the Chancellor will dictate the political line in all cases".
How do German liberals and social democrats mainly differ and what effects can a government coalition made up of the CDU and the SPD have on the domestic political level compared to one made up of the CDU and liberals?
“For Social Democrats the most important word is equality. Candidate Schulz, close to the unions, is fighting to stabilize the pension level at 48%, not to increase the retirement age beyond 67 and to guarantee a minimum pension for those who have little. To reduce taxes on the middle class, the SPD wants to raise taxes on high earners. In addition, he is planning a law to implement the decisions of the Paris summit on climate protection. Liberals, on the other hand, have a very different focus: the free economy, without the state, without constraints. They are calling for a change in European trade towards a liberal market system. More radical in the liberal sense is their stance on Europe's financial policy: taking Greece out of the eurozone and dissolving the European Stability Mechanism ESM. All in all a new "big coalition" between CDU and SPD has more in common. To give an example: the two parties are in agreement on the auto issue and on the protection of the automotive industry because it is the symbol of "Made in Germany", Merkel's words. Both are asking for incentives to scrap diesel cars. So no end to diesel engines, despite the recent scandals”.
In both cases, what role can Finance Minister Schäuble play: will Merkel's fourth consecutive victory inevitably end up reducing him or not?
“No, on the contrary, the Merkel Chancellery always supports him and it seems clear that Schäuble will also remain in his post in the next government because I believe that, even if the liberals entered the coalition instead of the social democrats, they would agree with him and ask for them the ministry of economy and energy, now in the hands of the SPD. Schäuble has been doing his job as finance minister since 2009 and is held in high esteem by Germans. Only a few days ago the Chancellor publicly made Schäuble's proposal for the creation of a European fund similar to the IMF ”.
Merkel is preparing to win the September elections with the reassuring face of a leader with proven experience who promises stability in continuity: does her foreseeable electoral success completely exclude novelties on the domestic and international political level?
“The election campaign is boring, they say in Germany. The CDU slogan "for a Germany in which we live well and willingly" says it all. If there are any changes, he has already announced them: more spending on defense, economic development, the police, more money for parents and lower taxes for middle incomes. All this guarantees stability and that is exactly what the Germans are asking for in these times. I see neither space nor will for major reforms”.
However, there could be some news on the German side in terms of European policies both with an eye to relaunching European integration and with an eye to economic strategy and the possibility that, once the toughest phase of the Great Crisis is over, the economic policy of the European Union can become more flexible?
"Yes, it's true. Especially since the talks with Macron's France are intensifying, the Chancellor has announced a new course with respect to European integration. A joint eurozone finance minister is no longer a taboo and a few days ago he said yes to the proposal to transform the ESM into a sort of monetary fund for the countries of the euro area. As for flexibility, in my opinion the problem of the North-South cultural divide has not yet been resolved in Europe and it does not depend on the elections in Germany but on the much work of mutual rapprochement that remains to be done”.
How many chances are there that, after Merkel's new electoral success, the EU will advance on the terrain of Eurobonds and the completion of the banking union with the go-ahead for guarantees on bank deposits and how many chances are there that Germany is willing to review the Fiscal Compact? Don't you think that openings on these fronts could be the reasonable compromise that Germany accepts to win the presidency of the ECB for the Bundesbank after Mario Draghi?
“Something is moving in Europe. And all political forces in Germany want the banking union to be completed one day. The word Eurobond, however, remains a taboo: Merkel's CDU is and remains against it and so are the liberals. The same goes for the bank deposit guarantee, and here the Germans are on the same page as Minister Schäuble. Some German economists are discussing a new, "softer" interpretation of the Fiscal Compact to create more growth, but the Chancellor's party insists in its electoral program precisely on the fact that the rules "decided together" must be respected. Who will lead the ECB from October 2019 onwards, a German or not, will be the subject of discussions over the next two years. First let's see what changes in Europe”.
After the German elections, the electoral cycle of the major European countries will end with the Italian general elections in the coming months: in her fourth chancellorship, how will Merkel view Italy?
“France with President Macron is undoubtedly in first place for Germany. But the Italian events are followed by Berlin in a very attentive way. He counts on the fact that Italy is the third largest country in the eurozone and that the manufacturing industries are quite similar. The latest Italian economic data are positive, it seems the definitive end of the crisis, but fears persist in Germany that Italy will head towards a phase of instability after the elections. And a politically unstable country, perhaps without a government for months, runs more economic risks. More than once in the past, the Chancellor has supported the reform path of the Italian government. And no one in Germany hopes for the advancement of populist and Eurosceptic forces".
