As announced by President Juncker in his 2016 State of the Union address, The European Commission today presented the White Paper on the future of Europe, representing his contribution to the Rome summit of 25 March 2017.
As we prepare to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the EU, we can look back on seven decades of peace and an enlarged Union of 500 million citizens living free in one of the world's most prosperous economies. But we must also look ahead, to the vision that the EU will outline for its future in 27. The White Paper, which outlines the main challenges and opportunities for Europe over the next ten years, presents five scenarios for the possible evolution of the Union between now and 2025, depending on the response that will be provided.
The President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker he said: “60 years have passed since Europe's founding fathers decided to unite the continent by the force of law, rather than armed forces. We can be proud of what we have accomplished since then. Our worst day of 2017 will still be far better than any of the days our ancestors spent on the battlefield. With the 60th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome the time has come for a united Europe of 27 to define a vision for the future. It is the moment of leadership, unity and common will. The Commission's White Paper presents a number of different paths that the united EU at 27 could choose to follow. It is the beginning of the process, not the end, and I hope now that an honest and far-reaching debate will be started. Once the function is defined, the form will follow. The future of Europe is in our hands."
The White Paper examines how Europe will change over the next decade - from the impact of new technologies on society and jobs to doubts about globalisation, security concerns and the rise of populism - and the choice will find what to do: passively accept these trends or lead them and seize the new opportunities they offer. As other parts of the world expand, Europe's population and economic weight decline. By 2060, not a single Member State will reach 1% of the world's population, which is a pressing reason to stick together and achieve more. Europe's prosperity, a positive global force, will continue to depend on its openness and strong ties with partners.
The White Paper outlines five scenarios, each of which provides a glimpse of what the state of the Union could be between now and 2025, depending on the choices that Europe will make (see annex). The scenarios, which contemplate a range of possibilities and are illustrative in nature, are not mutually exclusive or exhaustive.
Scenario 1: Keep it up – In the scenario of continuing on the path already set, the EU27 focuses on implementing its positive reform agenda, in line with the spirit of the Commission's 2014 New Start for Europe guidelines and the Declaration of Bratislava agreed by all 27 Member States in 2016. Under this scenario, by 2025:
- Europeans will drive automated and connected cars, but may encounter problems crossing borders due to persistent legal and technical barriers;
- in most cases, Europeans will cross borders without being checked; due to the tightening of security checks it will be necessary to go to the airport or train station well in advance of the departure time.
Scenario 2: Only the single market – The EU27 progressively refocuses on the single market as the 27 Member States fail to find common ground in an increasing number of areas. Under this scenario, by 2025:
- periodic checks will complicate border crossings for business or tourism purposes; it will be more difficult to find work abroad and the transfer of pension rights to another state will not be guaranteed; those who fall ill abroad will be forced to pay high medical bills;
- Europeans are reluctant to use connected cars due to the lack of rules and technical standards at EU level.
Scenario 3: Those who want more do more – The EU27 continues along the current lines, but allows willing Member States to do more together in specific areas such as defence, internal security or social issues. One or more “coalitions of the willing” will emerge. Under this scenario, by 2025:
- 15 Member States to set up a police force and a judiciary corps to tackle cross-border criminal activity; security information will be exchanged in real time and national databases will be fully interconnected;
- Connected cars are in widespread use in the 12 Member States that have agreed to harmonize liability rules and technical standards.
Scenario 4: Doing less more efficiently – The EU27 focuses on delivering more results faster in certain policy areas, intervening less in areas where no added value is perceived. Limited attention and resources are focused on a small number of sectors. Under this scenario, by 2025:
- a European Telecommunications Authority will be empowered to free up frequencies for cross-border communications services, such as those used by connected cars. It will also protect the rights of mobile phone and internet users, wherever they are in the EU;
- A new European Counter-Terrorism Agency will help deter and prevent major attacks through systematic monitoring and reporting of suspects.
Scenario 5: Doing much more together – Member States decide to share more powers, resources and decision-making processes in all areas. European-level decisions are agreed faster and implemented quickly. Under this scenario, by 2025:
- Europeans wishing to complain against a proposed EU-funded wind turbine project in their area will struggle to get in touch with the responsible authority as they will be directed to the relevant European authorities;
- connected cars will drive smoothly across Europe thanks to clear rules applicable across the EU; drivers can apply to an EU agency responsible for enforcing the rules.
Next steps
The White Paper is the European Commission's contribution to the Rome Summit, where the EU will discuss its achievements over the last 60 years but also its future in the Union of 27. The White Paper marks the start of a process which the EU27 will decide the future of the Union. To encourage debate, the European Commission, together with the European Parliament and interested Member States, will host a series of debates on the future of Europe which will take place in cities and regions across the continent.
The European Commission will contribute to the debate in the coming months with a series of reflection papers:
- on the development of the social dimension of Europe;
- on the deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union on the basis of the Five Presidents' Report of June 2015;
- on the management of globalisation;
- on the future of European defence;
- on the future of EU finances.
Like the White Paper, the reflection papers will set out different ideas, proposals, options and scenarios for Europe in 2025, without presenting final decisions at this stage.
President Juncker's speech on the state of the union in September 2017, it will take these ideas forward before the December 2017 European Council can draw the first conclusions. This will help decide on a course of action to be implemented in time for the June 2019 European Parliament elections.
Context
Sixty years ago, driven by the dream of a peaceful and shared future, the founding members of the EU embarked on an ambitious journey of European integration with the signing of the Treaties of Rome. They have mutually agreed to resolve conflicts around a table rather than on battlefields. After the painful experience of a troubled past, therefore, Europe has known seven decades of peace and has transformed itself into a Union of 500 million citizens who enjoy freedom and opportunity in one of the most prosperous economies in the world.
The 60th anniversary of the Treaties of Rome, on 25 March 2017, will be an important occasion for EU27 leaders to reflect on the state of play of our European project, assessing its successes and strengths as well as what needs to be improve, and demonstrate the common will to shape a more solid future together.
As announced by President Juncker in his State of the Union address of 14 September 2016, which was welcomed by EU27 leaders at the Bratislava Summit on 16 September 2016, the Commission today presented the White Paper on the future of Europe to launch the debate in view of the Rome summit.
The White Paper will serve to guide the debate among the 27 heads of state or government and will help structure the discussion at the Rome Summit and well beyond. It will also be used by the Commission as a starting point for a wider public debate on the future of our continent.
