A break after the holidays to take stock before returning to your activities? What's better than a trip to Jackson Hole! For almost four decades, the world's main bankers have been meeting in the valley at the end of the summer State of Wyoming just outside the Yellowstone National Park to discuss economic issues, implications and policy options. But how is the event organised? How does it happen? And why there? Here are all the numbers and curiosities of the event
2024 edition: the effectiveness of monetary policy
This year's edition takes place from 22 to 24 August and the title 'Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy' has been chosen. “This year's theme will explore the lessons learned from monetary policy response both to pandemic and the next surge of inflation” say the organizers. “The 20s saw some of the strongest monetary policy actions on record. First, central banks around the world have adopted a historically accommodating policy to compensate for the pandemic shock. Then, as inflation rose to multi-decade highs, monetary policymakers responded with one of the shrinkage cycles fastest ever recorded. Although i results have been different across economies, inflation eased even as growth remained surprisingly resilient. The resilience of growth in this period raises questions about the transmission of monetary policy and the lessons to be learned from this extraordinary episode" reads the website of the event organisation.
The program: where to find it and what the times are
The complete conference program will be published on official website of the Kansas City Fed Thursday 22 August at 20.00pm in New York (i.e. 2am on Friday in Italy). All times listed will follow Wyoming Time. The schedule will only show the titles of the speeches and the names of the speakers, while the full text of the speeches will be published at the time each event is scheduled to start.
Powell's speech is currently scheduled for 16.00pm Italian time on Friday and will also be streamed on Youtube channel of the Kansas City Fed. In addition to Powell, for now it is known that the governor of the Bank of England will speak Andrew Bailey and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank Philip Lane. Bailey's speech is expected at 23.00pm, while Lane will participate in a round table on Saturday. They will likely be joined by a central banker from emerging countries and a leader of an international organization, such as the International Monetary Fund or the Bank for International Settlements. Only Powell's speech will be broadcast live. Documents and other materials will be posted on the Kansas City Federal Reserve website as they are presented at the event.
Few but good
From its very first steps, the event aimed to host only a few carefully selected participants. The event will accommodate approximately 120 Guests gathered into special commissions, immediately after paying a participation fee. More precisely, 45 central bankers will be present, together with 25 personalities belonging to the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, 5 representatives of the US government, 8 of the most important financial organizations and 24 academics will also participate in the work.
Finally, 12 people linked to the world of gods will preside media, carefully selected “to provide important transparency to the symposium, without however overwhelming or influencing the proceedings”.
What to expect from the event
All the spotlight is on the speech of Jerome Powell especially after the markets experienced heavy selling in early August, on fears of a possible recession that could creep into the US economy. In recent days, calm seems to have returned, but now everyone is waiting at least for a rate cut by the Fed in September, while many analysts expect three easings by the end of the year. Confirmation of these prospects also arrived yesterday, from minutes of the FOMC Fed at the end of July.
Il Fed chairman he recently declared that his speech at Jackson Hole should “have nothing to do with the subject of the conference.” Governor Bailey could instead cite the report About a rate of (general) interest: how monetary policy transmits from earlier in the summer, on BoE staff's views on the impact of monetary policies on key economic variables in the UK.
“We expect Powell's message and sideline interviews to be close to what we've heard in recent weeks, that the Fed is now close to cutting interest rates, but that the degree of easing will depend on incoming data,” said by Goldman Sachs in its Global markets daily. “As our economists have discussed recently, we expect three consecutive 25 basis point cuts starting in September and believe the market has gone too far in pricing in a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting after the July employment, weaker than expected."
According to the New York giant, comments could resonate about the fact that the Fed's task is not to react to a single piece of data. “Key data, including PCE inflation and the August jobs report, will be released shortly after the Jackson Hole symposium and there will likely be an emphasis on waiting for these data before determining the extent of easing necessary,” the analysts continue. However, reassurances are also likely to emerge that the US central bank “is prepared to act quickly should the economy suffer a more severe downturn”.
The true meaning of “Hole”
Contrary to what the name suggests, Jackson Hole is not a hole in the ground. It is instead a valley, surrounded by the beautiful Teton and Gros Ventre mountain ranges. The valley is relatively flat and wide, bounded by steep mountains, which does it look like a hole from afar. The term “hole” in the American West often refers to a wide, flat valley surrounded by mountains. The name “Jackson Hole” likely comes from early fur trappers or settlers who passed through the region and noted its distinctive topography. William Sublette, a fur trader, is often credited with naming the valley after a fellow fur trapper, David E. Jackson, in the early 19th century. The city of Jackson, located within Jackson Hole, serves as a hub of activity and civilization in the valley. Founded in the late 19th century as a trading outpost, Jackson has retained its Old West charm.
Volcker was convinced to participate in 1982 due to the excellent fishing
The annals of the symposium speak of the first meeting held on 18 and 19 May 1978 with the title “World Agricultural Trade The Potential For Growth” and saw the participation of 19 people. Since 1982 the event has been held at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, a location chosen for the possibility of trout fishing, in an attempt to attract Paul Volcker, a great fishing enthusiast, the then president, to the symposium. of the Fed grappling with an economy mired in a deep recession. In September 1989 it also hosted a high-level diplomatic meeting between the USA and the USSR: Secretary of State James Baker and Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze took part. After the great financial crisis of 2009, various Fed presidents used the symposium to announce changes in monetary policy or economic prospects.
