As honey attracts bees, the Iveco defense branch, at a historic moment for the rearmament of Europe that wants to emancipate itself from the United States, attracts many suitors. The competition between those interested in Iveco Defense, the jewel of the group controlled by Exor, was officially given last February by Olof Persson, CEO of Iveco when he confirmed that he wanted to separate during the 2025 the defense business, which includes the Idv and Astra brands and related activities, through a spin off.
Il value of Iveco Defence Vehicles (Idv) is not insignificant: analysts estimate it at between 750 million and 1 billion euros, and there is real interest from potential buyers.
In recent days the Italian government itself had shown itself in favour of Leonardo came forward, although "the price obstacle still needs to be overcome". But other contenders are also coming forward from beyond the Alps, but they could fuel other problems on a political level with respect to the Leonardo option. These are the Franco-German alliance Knds, the Czech group Csg and the British giant Bae Systems, according to the Corriere della Sera.
The Iveco stock is soaring at Piazza Sffari: in the late morning it is quoted at 16,915 euros, up 4,67%, after a high this morning at 17,225 euros. In the last six months the stock has gained over 85%.
In detail, the newspaper says that those who have come forward would be Knds, a Franco-German alliance, which would have made an initial survey, but at the moment it appears politically and industrially impractical. Then there would be the Czech group CSG, already present in Italy with 80% of the Brescia Perazzi Weapons. This group operates in the military world producing defense systems, vehicles, ammunition, train components and air traffic control systems. Websim says that in the last 12 months, CSG's business was essentially split in half (51%/49%) between NATO and non-NATO players and that its net debt is around 800 million, or 0.9 times EBITDA: the acquisition of IDV would bring the net debt/EBITDA to around 2 times.
Finally there is English Bae Systems who has two collaborations with Leonardo (shareholder of missile manufacturer MBDA and partner of Gcap for sixth-generation fighters).
For analysts, the Leonardo option remains the most credible
From an industrial point of view, according to Intermonte, the names mentioned in the article “make sense as they operate in the military field, but any judgment will have to take into account the political aspect which at this moment appears particularly delicate, sensitive and not ideal for at least two of the three players mentioned (Knds and CSG)”. For analysts, the JV between Leonardo and Rheinmetall is “still the most credible player” to take over the Defence division. Also for Equity the Leonardo option remains "the most likely as it is welcomed by the Italian government (therefore not risking the exercise of the golden power) and allows for the exploitation of synergies from an industrial point of view". For the group led by Roberto Cingolani, “the deal could prove expensive, but the financial effort would be shared with Rheinmetall and we believe it is justifiable by the industrial synergies”, writes Equita, which confirms a Hold recommendation and a target price of 46,5 euros. For Iveco “we confirm that the spin-off/sale of idv represents a positive catalyst”. Equita’s recommendation is “buy” with a target price of 17 euros, while Intermonte’s is “Neutral” with a price of 15,4 euros.
There are many areas where Leonardo could shine further: in space scope with the strategic partnership between Leonardo and Thales for the Space Alliance and Leonardo's industrial participation in Avio, with MBDA, the main European consortium building missiles and defence technologies in which Leonardo participates, the recent partnership with Baykar on drones, the joint venture with Rheinmetall.
