After Salvini's indisputable victory at European elections, the attention of all political commentators is focused on the tactical moves of the winner and on the difficulties of the defeated Di Maio, to try to understand if the yellow-green government can remain standing. These are analyzes based on tactics of alignment or on matters of personal power. Few dwell on the contents of the proposals put forward by the leader of the League and on those quietly indicated by the grillini who got into confusion after the electoral setback. And no one seems to wonder whether the economic recipe indicated by Salvini is the right one for Italy, that is, whether it is capable of bringing the country out of stagnation and truly creating new jobs.
The leader of the League peremptorily asked his government allies to approve four key provisions of his program: regional autonomy, the security decree, the TAV and the flat tax. To this menu the grillini add the minimum wage and aid to families with children. The more political measures such as the security decree and regional autonomy raise serious doubts both of a constitutional nature and of effectiveness. But it is above all those of an economic nature that risk aggravating the crisis of our economy. And it's not just a question of implementing Salvini's threat to ignore Brussels' calls on our debt, but of seriously considering the reaction of the markets, i.e. of savers, faced with uncertainty about Italy's ability to repay its debts.
Of course, Salvini won the elections by promising a tax cut for everyone, as well as of course the expulsion of invading foreigners and the peace of mind of being able to retire as soon as possible. But to keep these promises the leader of the League will necessarily have to reject the appeals of Brussels on the level of deficit and debt, which would risk putting the entire European construction at risk with serious repercussions, in the event of default, also on other countries.
The math is quickly done: around 30 billion would be needed to defuse the VAT increase and finance the expenses already decided. The flat tax alone could cost around 15 billion. So also considering other minor measures we could arrive at a requirement for next year of between 40 and 50 billion. To cope with it will be necessary to put new taxes (perhaps a more or less heavy asset), or greatly exceeding the threshold of 3% of the annual deficit and pushing the debt up to almost 140% of GDP. All this without considering the reaction of the spread which is already marching towards 300, ever closer to that of Greece, with a depressive effect on business investments and citizens' consumption and therefore on GDP.
Some improvised economist must have explained to Salvini that by spending more in the deficit, economic growth is relaunched and therefore in the end this will make it possible to recover from the greater deficit and keep the debt under control. In short, a magic formula which consists in curing the debt by making more debt. A recipe that has never worked so far not only in modern times, but also in history, where many "sovereigns" have tried to meet their expenses with ever greater debts. But this has always resulted in bankruptcy, i.e. in the impossibility of repaying the borrowed money. Or inflation has been used to devalue one's debts and mow the citizens' savings.
Many political analysts complain that the government is not working. In the last month, no significant measures have been approved after the decree unblocking construction sites, which, moreover, is still stuck in Parliament. Instead it's a good thing the two government partners don't agree on anything because in general, when an agreement is reached on something, these are harmful measures, as they hinder the functioning of the economy and block growth, as in fact happened in the past months when the first Lega and 5 Star laws pushed the country in recession, unique among all European countries.
Now if Salvini were to actually implement the measures he has in mind, and above all if he were to openly challenge Brussels and the markets, the risk of derailing the entire Italian economy would be very high, and the effects would be serious in terms of sacrifices that, in one way or another, Italian citizens would be called to bear. It would be nice to be able to immediately satisfy all the wishes of the voters. But sadly, the world doesn't work that way.
Salvini thinks he will win anyway. If the grillini approves all of his proposals, his image as a leader who does what he promised will be strengthened, if instead the government were to fail, it would be easy for him to attribute responsibility to the unruly ally and therefore return to the elections. He could thus ask the people for a full victory in order to be able to govern in solitude (at most with Meloni's spare wheel) and be able to fulfill all the wishes of the voters. A risky move. If he were to succeed (and today it seems possible) the bill will then have to be paid by the Italians.
