very precipitously. The fall in Italy's GDP is becoming breakneck speed. A sort of Caporetto of the economy.
As expected and provided by FIRSTonline, ahead of the other media, all the study centres, starting with that of the Bank of Italy, are tinkering with econometric models to figure out how much to reduce the GDP estimates for 2020 and decree Italy's entry into a new recession, the fourth in less than ten years. For example, Prometeia marginally adjusted the change in GDP in the first quarter of 0,1 downwards, from +0,3% to -2020%.
REF Ricerche revises it in a decidedly more consistent way. Doing two reasoned accounts, almost on the back of an envelope, thrilling numbers come out: a cumulative reduction of between -1% and -3% in the first two quarters of the year. And the recovery is not at all said to be in V.
The calculations of the REF Ricerche economists start from assessments of individual sectors, divided into four groups according to the range of variation in added value that can be expected. Some have a positive sign (+2-6%): they are the ones who are benefiting from the hysteria consumer reaction in hoarding food, amuchina and so on, and are worth 8,5% of GDP. Others are not substantially infected: public services, agriculture and livestock, and many private services; they are the most important group, accounting for 54,6% of GDP.
Then there are the sectors that are suffering downturns. Included by -4% for a number of manufacturing and energy sectors, construction, non-food and wholesale trade; as a whole they have an incidence of 25,1% on the Italian GDP. And extended up to -40% for textiles, air and rail transport, hotels, restaurants, bars, shows, sporting activities and events. They account for 11,7% of GDP.
These estimates imply that the Italian GDP it will be lower by a value between 9 and 27 billion. For public accounts, this translates into lower revenues and higher expenditures (for example, more redundancy funds and unemployment benefits). Considering only the lower revenues, the public deficit widens by 5-13 billion. Also for this reason the markets turn their backs on the BTPs.
This epidemic, as REF Ricerche points out, it is the first in the age of social media, and this spreads panic and, given the amount of fake news circulating on the net, disinformation. It is also the first in the era of teleworking, which allows you to reduce travel and continue working from home; penalizing, however, the transport sector. Finally, it is also the first in the era of online shopping; many will prefer this sales channel rather than going to the supermarket and, once they get used to it in the emergency, they will hardly go back, for convenience and greater price transparency.
The estimates of REF Ricerche may turn out to be pessimistic in the event of a rapid return to normal. But this seems difficult: once the vase has been opened and the fear let out, it takes a long time to bring it back.
Or optimistic, if the virus and the resulting panic spread to other countries, as it is happening. Switzerland has canceled the Geneva motor show, the main annual event in the sector. The US has announced that it may be necessary to close some schools. And so on.
Ps: it was learned yesterday that the OECD has changed the way it presents the new forecasts, scheduled for Monday 2 March, which also contain estimates for the effect of the virus. No longer a real press conference, but a virtual one, with questions to send via Instagram. Enzo Iannacci would sing: «Not to be outdone».
