The signs of the probable slowdown of the world economy for next year continue to increase and Italy is no exception.
Promethea in the report published in December 2018, he revised downwards the growth forecast for 2019 in Italy, bringing it to 0,5% from the previous +0,9%. The Istat data relating to the third quarter of the year had already shown a slowdown of -0,1% on the previous quarter after 14 months of uninterrupted growth.
even the 2018 GDP was revised slightly downwards to +0.9% compared to the +1% figure in October. “Growth was all achieved in the first part of the year, with a practically stagnant second half, which would leave practically nothing for 2019”, explains Prometeia.
The deficit/GDP ratio in 2019 is estimated at 2.3%, “because – continues the report – despite the forecast of an expansionary maneuver capable of containing the deficit within 2%, growth well below that indicated by the government will have a negative effect on the public finances”.
Globally, according to Prometeia the tensions between the United States and China will lead to a real all-out trade war and the effects are already reverberating on the numbers relating to international trade which, according to the consultancy firm's estimates, will slow down , falling from +4.1% in 2018 to +2.9% in 2019. A decline which will result in the deceleration of world growth to +3.7% in 2018, +3.3% in 2019 and +3.1% in 2020.
As for Europe, the deterioration of global trade it will penalize investments and growth expectations in the Eurozone. The 2019 growth estimates for the euro area have been revised downwards to +1.2% from the +1.6% expected in October.
