Industry stopped in Europe. After the negative data of Germany (-3,5% in December, -6,8% on the year) and France (-2,8%, -3% on the year), Italy is also following, which closes 2019 with minus sign. Industrial production decreased by 1,3% in the year both in raw terms and net of calendar effects. This is the first decrease since 2014 and the largest decrease since 2013. Taking into account calendar effects in trend terms the decrease is 4,3%. Istat communicates it in its monthly report.
In December, Italian industrial production fell by 2,7% compared to November (seasonally adjusted index). Moving on to the fourth quarter, the decline in cyclical terms is 1,4%. The data represents the sharpest decline recorded since the fourth quarter of 2012, as well as the third consecutive red after those of the second and third quarters of 2019. Applying GDP standards, one could say that the sector is going through a phase of "recession".
“Overall in 2019, industrial production showed a decrease compared to the previous year, the first since 2014. – comments Istat – Among the main groupings of industries, the decline was more marked for intermediate goods, less marked for capital goods. On the other hand, a slight increase characterized the production of consumer goods and energy. Considering last year's economic evolution, there was an increase only in the first quarter (net of seasonal factors), while in the following quarters there were continuous decreases, with a more marked decrease in the last three months of the year. The trend dynamics of the index adjusted for calendar effects was also negative for almost all months of 2019”.
Speaking ofthe individual sectors, the most significant negative changes concern intermediate goods (-2,8%), energy and consumer goods (-2,5% for both groupings) and capital goods (-2,3%). On a trend basis, the decline is even more significant: -6,6% for intermediate goods, -6% for energy, 4,7% for capital goods. Consumer goods are partially saved, marking -0,8%.
"The only sectors of economic activity that record trend increases - underlines the National Institute of Statistics - are the manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products (+5,3%), the food, beverage and tobacco industry (+2,9 .1,1%) and other industries (+10,4%). Among the remaining sectors, the greatest declines were recorded in industries (-9,3%), in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (-7,7%) and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment nec (-XNUMX%).
The data concerning motor vehicles stands out, whose production in 2019 marks a double-digit decrease: -13,9%, the worst result since 2012. Looking at December, the trend decrease is 8,6%.
