Surprise: for the first time in three years, the Italian GDP has more than recovered the pre-pandemic level. Not only: “acquired” growth for 2022 is now 3,4%, almost one point more than previous estimates. It is not the only and not even the most sensational novelty that inaugurates this unprecedented pre-election summer. To deny the air of last resort for the economy of the Bel Paese, fueled by sovereignists and Cassandre, contributes the enthusiastic response of the markets financial to the accounts of listed companies in Piazza Affari, from banks to manufacturing and services, not to mention energy. A phenomenon so widespread that it deserves further study. Above all to understand if the mini-Risorgimento of the Italian economy will be able to survive an autumn which, after the vote of 25 September, promises to be hot if not turbulent. That is, how much of the rebound, achieved moreover in an adverse international climate, is due to the Draghi government. Let's try to line up some numbers.
Italian GDP: an unexpected leap in the second quarter
The most relevant macro data concerns the leap in Italian GDP in the second quarter: + 1,1 %, in line with the other Southern European countries, starting with Spain. Better than France (+0,5%), much better than Germany, nailed to zero growth also by the unprecedented negative balance of exports and imports.
The rise in the Bel Paese's GDP coincided with the tourism boom (a guarantee, at least for the rest of the summer), but it also resisted the slowdown in foreign trade thanks also to the boost in service-related consumption. In summary, the data on GDP was higher than any optimistic forecast, including the alarms of Confindustria.
Gas: agreements in Africa reduce dependence on Russia
Also on the front ofthe energy Italy, one of the countries most dependent on Russian gas, has made some important progress thanks to agreements with African producers. Just yesterday, the outgoing executive's strategy was indirectly rewarded by an important new agreement: Nigeria, Niger e Algeria they signed the memorandum for the TSGP, the gas pipeline (4.000 km long) which will carry Nigerian gas to the Transmed, the submarine artery linking Algeria and Italy.
Inflation: Even the "shopping cart" continues to rise
Finally, inflation: in the euro area it is expected to reach 8,9% in July, a further increase on the record of 8,6% in June. In Italy the increase is 7,9% on an annual basis. In the meantime, the shopping cart accelerates: the prices of food, home and personal care products go from +8,2% to +9,1%, those of high-frequency purchase products from +8,4, 8,7% to +1984%. This is an increase, notes Istat, which has not been observed since September XNUMX.
The accounts of listed companies make the stock market smile
In this context, i quarterly accounts they did justice to fears, albeit justified, about the effect of inflation, largely linked to the increase in raw materials and the decline of globalisation, with immediate repercussions on relations with China. Not to mention the devastating rise in energy prices and the consequences of the embargo against Moscow. It could have been the antechamber of a perfect storm, amplified by the uncertainty for the vote.
Bank stocks
On the contrary, Piazza Affari has been able to reserve almost only happy surprises, reducing by an abundant third the losses shared up to now since the beginning of the year (just over 13%). Among the most welcome data the rally in bank stocks, inaugurated by Unicredit and continued yesterday with Intesa Sanpaolo. Both banks have effectively put credit with Russia under control. Well too Mediobanca after the increase in revenues (+8%).
The energetics
More predictable, but still great, is the leap forward of Eni (+6,65%, in line with the progress of the other Big Oils). It also starts again Enel (+3%), on which Citi raises the recommendation from Sell to Neutral.
Manufacturing and technology
Most of all, the trend of manufacturing is striking. The textile-clothing industry runs behind Moncler, which has been able to overcome the slowdown in the Chinese market. Technology is in great shape: stm but also Prysmian, which raised its year-end result estimates by 30%. The data from is also very positive Webuild.
Automotive
The main surprise concerns the world on four wheels. Behind the record numbers of Stellantis runs the entire sector, from Pirelli a Brembo to Iveco and Cnh. A favorable stock market situation that is confronted with the cry of alarm about the risks of the sector (70 jobs in danger) due to the transition to electricity and the shortage of chips.
Outlook for the rest of the year
The Midsummer Rally list goes on and on. The recovery, at least for now, has prevailed over the inflation risk. But will it last? Maybe yes, given the low starting levels: in Europe only seven Eurostoxx stocks (none Italian) boast a positive quotation compared to the beginning of January. However, prudence is a must, also judging by the answers of the protagonists.
Carlos Tavares of Stellantis, the winner of the GP in the first half has no illusions: soon the industry will have to deal with the recession, especially in Europe. Therefore the sales forecast and the break-even point must be lowered. In stock market terms, the damage will be limited by tight supply and strong demand, which have allowed homes to raise prices, garnering unprecedented profits.
But not everyone can boast of such an enviable situation. Exports will be able to benefit from the recovery of US market, relaunched by the approval of the environmental investment plan. But we do not see for now the repeatedly announced relaunch of the China. The contribution of the Italian domestic market, especially with the execution of the Pnrr. But the departure of the Draghi government throws a heavy mortgage on the prospects of 2023, the year of almost obvious recession. And yet, as the accounts of these days show, the Cassandras are not always right.
