Good news and bad news. This is the balance of the macro data released today, 12 September, by Istat, according to which while employment returned to pre-crisis levels in the second quarter of 2018, industrial production recorded a sharp and unexpected slowdown in July.
EMPLOYMENT DATA
In the months of April, May and June 2018, Italy has “reached and exceeded the number of employed persons in the second quarter of 2008 – affirms Istat – and the non-seasonally adjusted employment rate of 15-64 year olds has returned to the same level (59,1% in both periods)”.
The same level of employed in 2008 also corresponds to a greater presence of employees (77%; +2,8 points), in particular temporary (13,4%; +3,1 points) and part-time workers (18,7, 4,1%; +XNUMX points). THE
Unemployment rate down, dropped in the second quarter to 10,7%, the lowest level in six years. In detail, to find an even lower figure we need to go back to the second quarter of 2012, when the unemployment rate was 10,6%.
Compared to the first quarter, among other things, the decrease is 0,2 percentage points which become 0,3% points compared to the same period of the previous year. On a trend level for the fifth quarter, the decrease in the number of unemployed continues - with less intensity (-34 in one year, -1,2%) which concerns only the South.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN FALL
The joy for the positive data on unemployment lasted only a few minutes. In fact, the July result of industrial production arrived immediately afterwards and scored a drop of 1,8% compared to June and by 1,3% compared to July 2017 (in data adjusted for calendar effects). Analysts had expected a much smaller decline, equal to 0,3%.
This is, explains Istat, the first trend contraction starting from June 2016, two years ago, and the worst result for over three years. The last drop of the same magnitude dates back to January 2015 (-1,8%). Raw data, on the other hand, show +1,8%.
On average for the first seven months, production grew by 2% on an annual basis. On the other hand, on average for the May-July quarter, the level of production recorded a decrease of 0,2% compared to the previous three months.
Speaking of the individual compartments, the decline is general: capital goods (-2,2%), consumer goods (-1,7%) intermediate goods (-1,2%); energy (-0,8%).
An alarm bell that is difficult to ignore especially for the effects it could have on the country's growth. "It is a very weak data at the beginning of the third quarter, which increases the risk that production could make a negative contribution to GDP", comments Loredana Federico, economist at UniCredit, on Reuters, attributing the slowdown to a weakness in foreign demand linked to the tensions on international trade, to which is added anemia of the internal one.
