The results of the meeting of the Economic Observatory held in Rome, at the SACE headquarters, were announced to analyze the trend of the Italian economy during the first quarter of 2012 and elaborate a series of forecasts for the entire year.
The data shows the state of recession of the Italian economy with an estimated contraction of GDP in the first three months of the year equal to 0,6%. If the data for the first quarter are certain, the estimates on the GDP trend for the entire year are conflicting. This is due to the dualism currently present in the Italian industrial system; in fact, sectors with a high propensity to export should register a strong acceleration by the end of 2012, while sectors favoring the domestic market will see a worsening of results.
The prospects for exports, especially for the mechanical and electronic sector, are constantly improving given the possibilities that are opening up in relation to the US and German economic recovery and also to the growth in demand from the BRICS.
On the other hand, diametrically opposite prospects for the food industry which, suffering from the strong link with the asphyxiated internal market, reduces quantity (-8% of food consumption in 2011) and quality (the weight of discount stores on overall sales more than doubled in 5 years) of the products. Another sector that has been in crisis for more than five years is that of construction for which there are no signs of recovery, also in relation to the credit crunch and the remodulation of taxes.
For these reasons, the GDP estimate for 2012 currently stands at -1,4% but it will be necessary to wait until the second half of the year to correctly evaluate the actual contribution of the individual industrial sectors.
The conclusions of Alessandra Lanza, president of the Business Economists Group, in fact underline the full indefinability of the economic framework also in relation to two variables: on the one hand, the trend in the price of crude oil, influenced by the lack of Iranian exports and, by the on the other, the risk of a reduction in foreign demand as a possible consequence of the American post-electoral context.
