It was a scary weekend, between hurricanes and the earthquake emergency in Mexico. But Kim Jong-un did not order the launch of new missiles to celebrate the anniversary of North Korea's independence, as feared. The narrow escape favored the positive start of the Asian stock exchanges.
The Topix index rises in Tokyo (+1,4%), driven by the technology sector (+1,9%) and by the weak yen (108,50 against the dollar). The run of safe-haven assets slows down, from gold (1336 dollars an ounce, 10 less than on Friday) to the Swiss franc (0,9498 against the dollar -0,6%). The Korean Kospi index also recovered (+1%), on a par with Hong Kong. But the relief could be short-lived: today the UN will have to consider new sanctions against Pyongyang, which threatens to react "by inflicting on the United States the most atrocious suffering in their history".
At the center of attention are two news items arriving from China. Beijing, in an attempt to curb the rise of the yuan against the dollar, has decided to loosen the rules on the purchase of currency decided in 2015 to curb the fall of the currency. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transport has anticipated that China intends to prohibit (without specifying the date) the production of cars with internal combustion engines, news that has made automotive stocks soar.
DOLLAR IN RECOVERY. GOLD FALLS
The dollar also recovered, but this morning the euro remained above the barrier of 1,20 against the US currency. The shock caused by the advance of hurricane Irma will weigh on the opening of US markets. The South Florida area, hit by the storm yesterday, held. Following the first surveys, the estimate of the damages has dropped drastically, from about 200 billion dollars, to just over 50 billion dollars.
Futures on European stock exchanges anticipate a start up by 0,4%. Oil is also on the rise: WTI trades at 47,84 dollars (plus 36 cents), Brent at 56 dollars. Saudi Arabia does not rule out new production cuts in the coming months. Great uncertainty at the closing of the polls in Norway: the decision whether or not to expand the production of crude oil in the North Sea will depend on the result.
APPLE UNVEILS THE IPHONE 8, THOUSAND DOLLAR SMARTPHONE (BY TITLE)
Europe is ready for a crusade against the giants of the digital economy. In the meantime, however, the spotlights of the financial community (and not only) are turning on the Steve Jobs Arena in Cupertino, where the iPhone 8 will be presented tomorrow, ten years after the launch of the first Apple smartphone. The expectation is very high: after three very similar models (6, 6S and 7), the market expects a highly innovative product, in addition to the already announced frameless display, also to justify the sale price well above one thousand dollars. In stock market terms, one wonders if the new model will push Apple's valuation beyond the barrier of one thousand dollars per share, thus breaking yet another historic record. Oracle accounts are also arriving this week.
TODAY THE DATA ON ITALIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
On the macro front, today the most relevant Italian data concern Italian industrial production. Unemployment data will be released tomorrow. Between Wednesday and Thursday those on inflation in the US and the main countries of the Eurozone, including Italy. The most important statistics of the US financial week will be released on Friday: household confidence index, industrial production and data on Empire Building Manufacturing.
Eurozone attention will be focused on next weekend's Ecofin meeting in Tallinn. On the table of EU finance ministers there will also be the initiative for a European web tax, launched by Italy, France, Germany and Spain. On Wednesday, President Jean-Claude Juncker will deliver his address on the state of the European Union. Among the topics covered was the urgency of measures to curb the takeovers on the companies of the Old Continent.
On Thursday, the board of the Bank of England will have to decide whether or not to proceed with the rate increase: the recovery in inflation in the United Kingdom, which has risen to 2,6%, plays in favor of an increase. But Governor Mark Carney is hostile to any change in the face of the uncertainty of the process triggered by Brexit.
8 BILLION BTP AT AUCTION THIS WEEK
The BTPs archived a positive week: thanks to the support of Draghi's words, the yield fell from 2,07% to 1,95%. It should also be noted that the spread against Spain narrowed to 43 basis points, the lowest level since March.
In this climate, the month-end auctions will start tomorrow. During the Bot auction, 6,5 billion euro of 12-month bonds will be made available to investors, against bonds maturing for an amount of 6,75 billion. During the medium and long-term auction on Wednesday 13 September, the Ministry of the Economy will make available to investors an amount between 6,5 billion and 8 billion euros in three securities, including the new 7-year (between between 3,5 and 4 billion euros).
ITALY-FRANCE: TESTS OF AGREEMENT ALSO ON THE NAVAL GROUP
Busy week also for corporate Italy. Tonight French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire will meet in Rome with his Italian colleagues Pier Carlo Padoan and Carlo Calenda. The subject of the meeting, of course, was the Fincantieri-Stx Saint Nazaire dossier in view of a possible agreement at the summit on 27 September. It is very unlikely that the longed-for agreement will be reached tonight, but the three-way negotiation which also includes the transalpine defense group Naval Group has continued in recent weeks.
AGCOM EXAMINES THE VIVENDI PROPOSAL ON MEDIASET TITLES
The Tim-Vivendi match is no less hot. On the carpet the knot of golden power. The coordination group that supports the government in this match has moved the closure of the investigation started in August from 19 to 25 September to ascertain the possible failure to notify by the French group. But also a possible agreement on ultra-broadband between Tim and Infratel, the public company that deals with tenders, and the appointment of the new CEO of Telecom, the Israeli Amos Genish. On Wednesday, the Agcom board will hold a briefing on the plan proposed by Vivendi regarding the stake in Mediaset.
To complete the busy schedule of the executive another delicate match, the one relating to Ilva of Taranto. Representatives of Arcelor MIttal and Marcegaglia are expected at the Ministry of Economic Development, the two industrial partners of the consortium that was awarded the iron and steel works.
COUNTDOWN TO THE PIRELLI OPV
The go-ahead from Consob is expected during the week for the public offer of sale of Pirelli shares in view of the listing. The Public Offer, which could start on Monday the 18th, should provide for the placement of 40% of the capital. The sellers will be ChemChina, the main shareholder of Bicocca, which will drop from 65% to 45%, while Camfin will reduce its stake from 22,6% to 10% and the Russians of Lti will downsize to 5% from the current 12,5%. In fact, the group has transformed itself into a "pure consumer" in the tire sector, a choice that according to Mediobanca Securities analysts will reward the group.
CALTAGIRONE PUBLISHER TAKEOVER SECOND ACT: OFFERED 1,22 EURO PER SECURITY
Caltagirone Editore tries again. Chiara Finanziaria has extended until 18 September the period for accepting the voluntary public purchase offer for a maximum of approximately 33,87 million ordinary shares. The offer price was also raised from 1 to 1,22 euro. Even the new offer is significantly lower than the prices (around 1,5 euro) recorded by the stock under the pressure of the purchases of the funds, which dispute the financial terms of the delisting: Amber capital came to hold 5,515% while it emerged that the share in the hands of the Benetton family, equal to approximately 2,2%, has already been sold on the market. The accession period should have closed on 8 September.
THE MEDIOBANCA FINANCIAL STATEMENT IS ON THE DIARY. INTESA WITHDRAWS THE LOAN FOR ROSNEFT
Tomorrow's meeting with the analysts of Yoox Net à Porter, the best stock in the basket of Italian blue chips both last Friday (+4,7%) and during the week (+9%) should be noted. The online fashion company has soared to its highest level since February 2016.
Among the appointments of the board of directors, the one of Banca Carige (Wednesday) and Eni, scheduled for Thursday, stands out. The Board meeting on Mediobanca's financial statements will be held on Friday 15th.
The 5,2 billion loan issued by Intesa Sanpaolo to the consortium formed by Qia and Glencore will be fully repaid after the same consortium has reached an agreement to sell 14,16% of Rosneft's stake to the Chinese Cefc Fund.
Another hot week for the European automotive sector, already the protagonist of strong increases (+3,1% the weekly increase in the index) thanks above all to the push of the big Germans. Electric cars promise to be the great protagonists of the Frankfurt Motor Show, in which Fiat Chrysler does not participate. Under pressure Peugeot, in the crosshairs of the investigations into the French Dieselgate.
