Recently the SACE pointed out how lhe start of 2019 was positive for Made in Italy exports (+2,9%) and they won't be missing opportunity over the year, notwithstanding the uncertainty of the global context, linked to negotiations Business USA-China, Brexit, risk of possible new financial and currency turmoil, slowdown of growth in China, the Eurozone and USA. Exports towards i markets UE are increased by 1,2%, thank you a Netherlands, Romania, France e United Kingdom, while pthat un decline in sales in Poland. Sales in the extra-UE they scored a +5,4%, with otime performances in india, USA, Sub-Saharan Africa, Switzerland e ASEAN. Still down instead, Türkiye and area MENA. After a 2018 closed in decline (-2,4%), in January exports to China returned to growth (+3,2%), supported by sales in instrumental mechanics, pharmaceuticals, food and drink. These last two sectors were also the most dynamic in Germany (+1,7%), together with electronics, rubber and plastic. Goes on instead the negative trend of sales in Villages OPEC (-19%), down since 2014.
If we take a look at the different sectors and types of goods and services, land foreign sales of consumer goods recorded an increase most significant (+7,4%), mainly thanks to the contribution of non-durables (+8%), and i beni durables advanced by 4,1%. The export of intermediate goods settled at 3,5%. More moderate, finally, the growth of exports of capital goods (+1,4%). Exports in the pharmaceutical sector recorded an increase of 19,2%, mainly thanks tosales itnon-EU markets like China, Russia and USA, but also in traditional European partners like France, Germany and the UK. India e Japan, on the other hand, they are some of the geographies that supported the sales of instrumental mechanics (+6,2%). The export of means of transport, despite an overall decline of 5,4%, grew up in China, markets ASEAN, Russia, Spain and UK. Between the best performances must also be reported manufacturing, food, metallurgy, textiles and clothing.
In this context, dfter nearly a decade of consistent improvements of the corporate insolvencies in advanced markets, atradius provides that 2019 will mark the first year of growth for theand defaults after the financial crisis . Questto dynamics roughly follows the global business cycle which appears to have peaked at 3,0% in 2018, supported by still loose financial conditions and significant fiscal stimulus in the USA. In this context, theand defaults in advanced markets last year only decreased by 2%, while lhe heightened uncertainty surrounding trade and monetary policy caused default forecasts to deteriorate in the final months of 2018. In 2019, this loss of momentum is likely to persist. With forecasts of the world economy this year up only 2,7%, analysts predict a 1% increase in defaults for advanced markets, marking the end of this recovery cycle.
Aggregate growth in insolvencies driven almost exclusively by Western Europe (+2%); è an increase of 1% is also expected for the Asia-Pacific region, mbetween analysts not provide changes in North America. Except Spain and Greece, the reasons for the decreases are largely negative base effects from 2018 as opposed to signs of economic optimism. The perspectives of many Villages fall into the stable category, although economic growth in advanced markets is generally slowing. This, in part, is due to the less aggressive positions taken by the Central Banks, with the Fed in first position. In this way, theat the pause of monetary tightening it should mitigate the impact that lower growth in global economies has on businesses; dto the other side, persists thetrade policy uncertainty while political uncertainty at the national level (France and Italy (in primis)) or regionally (Brexit) could increase even more in 2019.
The outlook for the eurozone economy has deteriorated significantly following a much weaker-than-expected second half of 2018. (1,8% compared to 2,5% reported, however, in 2017). Analysts predict than in the eurozone a weak growth will not be a phenomenon temporaryo, with il GDP in further decline to 1,4% in course of the year. Business confidence has deteriorated and uncertainty weighs on investments, in particularly in export-oriented sectors. while thelatest ECB banking survey leads to greater risk aversion contributing to a tightening of credit conditions for companies, credit standards remain historically accommodative, managing to support loan growth. QThis trend will continue in the first quarter and will increase in a more uncertain context.
Lhe 1% growth in defaults expected in the eurozone for 2019, is the first year-on-year increase since the debt crisis of the Villages of the euro. The increase in insolvencies in theEeurozone will be led by Italy, with a 6% increase in the number of business failures. Just thereItaly, driven by negative domestic demand, entered a recession in the second half of 2018: nIn the fourth quarter, industrial production fell by 1,1% dathe previous quarter and the PMI compound index continues to worsensre. The prospects for the economy, already strongly vulnerable, they continue to be suffocate from politics, undermining is confidence in public finances is in the recovery of the banking sector. With the effect of getting worse the credit conditions.
However, this trend to stagnation and rising insolvencies located some exceptions, and precisely in the Eurozone. The grade of improvemento in economies such as France, Germany and the Netherlands has already shown some easing in 2018 and is expected to recover on positive levels in 2019. Luxembourg is expected to experiment the most important improvement, of well- il 10%, treatssi of an adjustment following an increase of the defaults equal tol 28% last year (most companies in the financial and insurance sector with no employees). In the During the 2018, Greece's economy grew by 2,2%, its best result in more than a decade: this momentum is expected to continue this year with moderate growth a +1,9% e an 8% decline in delinquencies. In Spain, the economy is expected growing up by 2,3%, with un strengthening employment e higher consumption e a decrease in insolvencies of the 5%.
