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Italy, the economy: where is the slowdown coming from?

REPORT BY REF Ricerche – According to the Milanese economic analysis centre, the Italian economy is registering “a clear worsening” partly for international reasons and partly due to the uncertainties of the Government's manoeuvre.

Italy, the economy: where is the slowdown coming from?

Italy has been highlighting for some months a sharp deterioration in the economic situation. In part this is attributable to a European picture which is proving to be decidedly less positive than expected. The peculiar situation within our country also counts, which has led the financial markets to evaluate the government's economic policy programs negatively.

Tensions have been easing for a few days, in the light of the possibility of a redefinition of the contours of the manoeuvre. However, signs are beginning to emerge that uncertainty and credit deterioration are being transmitted to the economy.

On the other hand, the international economic scenario does not configure a favorable scenario to a discontinuity in Italian economic policy. Because the degree of aversion to risk on the financial markets has increased, as evidenced by the performance of the stock exchanges, and because the last two months have brought various bad news on the European economy. The deceleration that emerged at the beginning of the year is far from temporary, and the final part of 2018 does not show signs of a trend reversal.

Also in Italy the latest data are not encouraging. In just a few weeks, therefore, growth prospects have diminished, and this certainly does not help to improve the confidence of the financial markets. On the positive side, there is relative optimism from consumers. The "honeymoon" between families and the government continues, not only in the electoral polls.

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