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Italy and Spain: deflation is still there, but slowing down

Preliminary estimates by Istat and the Iberian institute INE reveal a recovery trend in both countries: in Italy in February prices rose on a monthly basis and fell less on an annual basis than in January.

Italy and Spain: deflation is still there, but slowing down

Italy still in the area deflation, but the decline in prices slows down. This is the trend recorded by the preliminary estimates of Istat, according to which the national consumer price index increased by 0,3% on a monthly basis, while it marked a decrease on an annual basis equal to 0,2%, less extensive than in January (-0,6%). And the same statistical institute comes to the conclusion that the last months of 2014 have highlighted "weak signs of recovery for the Italian economy", in a framework still characterized by "recessionary trends", which in the period 2012-2013 affected "both the manufacturing industry and the service sectors most closely linked to industrial demand".

Also Istat has found that the shopping cart has become more salty in February, especially with the prices of food, home and personal care products, which increased by 0,6% on January and by 0,7% on an annual basis (in January the trend rate was zero). As for the prices of frequently purchased products, they increased by 0,6% in quarterly terms and show a trend decline (-0,5%) that is less extensive than that recorded in January (-1,4%).

In February, fuel prices also rose again, in parallel with the recovery of oil. The price of petrol increased by 1,4% compared to the previous month and recorded a tendential decline (-12,4%) less extensive by more than one and a half percentage points compared to that recorded in January (-14%). 

The price of diesel by means of transport it marks a cyclical increase of 0,7%, with an attenuation of the decline on an annual basis (-14,3%, from -15,4% in the previous month). Conversely, the prices of other fuels recorded a further decrease on a monthly basis (-2,8%) mainly due to the further decrease in LPG, while they showed a reduction in the tendential decrease (-22,4%, from - 23,2% in January), which is affected by the comparison with February 2014 (the month in which the economic downturn was more marked and amounted to -3,7%).

Even in Spain consumer prices continue to fall, but less than forecasts: Madrid thus records inflation, in February, of -1,2% on an annual basis, according to the provisional estimate of the national statistical institute INE. In January, inflation stood at -1,5% and expectations were for a similar value in February as well. Spain has been in deflation since last July.

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