A nightmare November for the Italian industry. Istat certifies it, according to which in the month, Italian seasonally adjusted industrial production dropped by 1,6% compared to October. It is the largest drop recorded for more than four years. To find a similar debacle you have to go back to October 2014.
The reaction of Business Square with the Ftse Mib which, after a positive opening (+0,37%), slips below parity (-0,05%) frightened by the specter of recession.
Nn the average of the September-November 2018 quarter, the level of production recorded a decrease of 0,1% compared to the previous three months, while on an annual basis the drop is much more marked: -2,6%. The “negative trends – explains Istat – could be amplified by a “bridge” effect connected with the positioning of the 2018st November holiday in the calendar. The cyclical downturn on a quarterly basis is only slightly negative, confirming a picture of overall weakness in the levels of industrial activity during XNUMX".
On average for the first eleven months of 2018, the National Institute of Statistics explains, production grew by 1,2% compared to the previous year. In November 2018, the indices corrected for calendar effects recorded moderate trend growth only for consumer goods (+0,7%); significant decreases were instead observed for intermediate goods (-5,3%), for energy (-4,2%) and, to a lesser extent, for capital goods (-2,0%).
Speaking of the individual sectors, the budget of the auto sector is very heavy. The corrected index for calendar effects in fact, it recorded a drop of 19,4% on an annual basis and of 8,6% compared to the previous month. It should be noted that October had been a bad month for car manufacturers, with a trend decline of 14%. On average for the 11 months of 2018, production decreased by 5,1 percent. Waiting above all weighs down the whole sector I of the incentives and the change of parameters on engine pollution which took place in September.
As regards the other sectors, on an annual basis the i Positive outcomes of food, beverage and tobacco, which score a +2,7%. Basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations also did well (+1,3%) and other manufacturing, repair and installation industries of machines and equipment (+1,1%).
Elsewhere instead only minus signs. The most marked declines mainly concern the wood, paper and printing industries (-10,4%), mining (-9,7%) and the manufacture of articles in rubber and plastic materials, other processing products of non-metallic minerals (-6,7%). Means of transport also fell by 4,3%, while mechanics and machinery also suffered.
And the bad news may not have stopped there. In fact, Istat warns that More "the current phase of weakness in the Italian economic cycle could continue also in the coming months, in the light of the new decline in the leading indicator”. During the month, recalls the Institute, consumer confidence recorded a further decline, as did that of businesses.
The specter of recession therefore returns to frighten Italy, but also in the rest of Europe signs of a slowdown are beginning to alarm the markets. Also in November, the German locomotive marked a significant slowdown with industrial production which, on an annual basis, fell by 4,7%, the worst result in the last 9 years. On a monthly basis, the decline was instead 1,9%. Industrial production also fell in France (-1,3% in November) and Spain (-1,5%).
