Il consumption of natural gas in Italy it dates back to the early 60s, when drilling in the Po Valley began to yield satisfactory production. In 1970 gas consumption amounted to about 14 billion cubic meters compared with a national production of 12 billion. The impact on primary energy consumption was modest: around 10%. The demand for gas has continued to grow uninterruptedly over the years. In 1980, natural gas consumption already accounted for 16% of total energy demand. In 2000 it reached 33%, in 2011 we reached 38%. The drivers of this strong dynamic were two:
1) to economic growth from the 60s to the early 80s,
2) In the 90s, the commitments in terms of emissions deriving from the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, the progressive replacement of obsolete oil-fired plants with modern gas-fired combined cycles as well as the spread of methane heating systems which have replaced the diesel ones .
If consumption has grown decisively, the same cannot be said of national production which rose slowly until it reached its peak of 18,4 billion cubic meters in 1994 (when consumption was 45 billion) and then slowly declined until to 8 billion in 2011. This has made the country increasingly dependent on foreign countries and has pushed an important infrastructure process to build plants to import gas, led by the state-owned company ENI.
In the early 70s, in the midst of the Cold War, Italy and the Soviet Union signed agreements for the construction of the Trans Austria Gasleitung, a gas pipeline that brought Russian gas to Italy through Austria. In 1971 the first regasification terminal was inaugurated in Panigaglia, with a capacity of 3 billion cubic meters to import gas from North Africa. A few years later, in 1974, Italy was connected to the (then) rich deposits in the North Sea with the complex TENP-Transitgas system, which brought methane to Italy via Germany and Switzerland. In 1981 the first era of large gas infrastructures ended with the implementation of the Trasmed, which connects Italy to Algeria via Tunisia. Contrary to what has been said many times erroneously, these infrastructures have allowed Italy to have abundant and diversified gas supplies, effectively making it no longer necessary for at least twenty years to build new gas pipelines/regasification terminals.
Between the end of the 90s and the new millennium, the aforementioned (very rapid) development of gas-fired plants made it necessary to build new import infrastructures. However, the context had changed: the gas market was liberalized and opened up to new operators. Eni has continued to play a very important role (both economically and politically) for example with the construction of the GreenStream gas pipeline which has been connecting Italy to Libya since 2004. However, numerous projects have flourished alongside this, some already difficult to implement at first glance, others decidedly more concerted, such as that of the regasification terminal of Porto Levante (Rovigo) which, inaugurated by Edison in October 2009, was the first large import not managed by Eni. An important project that has further diversified supplies with gas from Qatar. The import capacity thus rises to 114 billion cubic metres. Considering the projects under construction, the figure reaches over 130 billion. All this in view of a demand that promised to grow constantly.
The economic crisis of 2008 fell unexpectedly into this scenario, quite radically changing the cards on the table. In 2009, consumption fell from 78 billion cubic meters to 72, a value which remained unchanged in 2011. This already complex picture is joined by the tumultuous and absolutely unthinkable development of renewables which contributes to compressing gas consumption even further and which will still do in the future, given that Italy has European obligations to 2020 to respect. In this context, does the Monti Government's strategy of making Italy the new European gas hub still make sense? Paradoxically yes, since in fact Italy already has all the credentials to be a gas hub: overcapacity, diversification of supplies, large number of neighboring consumer countries. With the commissioning of the Livorno regasification terminal and the Galsi and IGI/TAP gas pipelines, this situation is destined to further strengthen.
Building a gas hub, however, isn't exactly an easy thing to do. First of allo gas consumption is falling in all the main outlet markets for the coveted hub Italy: in the period 2010-2011 Austria scored -6%, Switzerland -13%, France -14% not to mention Italy whose consumption could drop by as much as 2012% at the end of 20. Secondly it would have to compete with the current existing hub in Europe, that of Belgium, which seems so distant but which with its almost 100 billion cubic meters of capacity has signed supply contracts with the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain and, yes, precisely with Italy, its future potential competitor. On the other hand, we cannot fail to mention operations such as the Eni-Fluxys agreement (owner of the Belgium hub) to reverse gas flows: not only from Northern Europe to the South but also from Italy to the North.
In this framework characterized by stable/decreasing consumption and economic crisis, the key role will once again be played by the price. If Italy manages to be competitive from this point of view, then it can really transform itself into a hub, with significant benefits also for consumers. Otherwise, despite all the good chances our country has, it will be very difficult. In addition, the costs associated with the creation of the hub should not be underestimated, which should be borne, at least in the initial phase, by the Italian consumer who is already paying an overpriced bill.
THE PREVIOUS EPISODES of FOCUS ENERGIA were published by FIRSTonline on 8, 15, 22 and 29 September.
