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Creeping Italexit or Italy excluded from Europe?

VIDEO – With the ongoing challenge launched by the Lega-Cinque Stelle government to Europe, it cannot be ruled out that in the end the EU member states will force Italy to self-isolate and leave the euro – Italy would have everything to lose but it wouldn't be necessarily so for the European partners: that's why

Creeping Italexit or Italy excluded from Europe?

And so, at the end of the story also Edmondo De Amicis in his famous novel "Heart", after cornering him, causes that to be kicked out of the class maverick of Franti. 

It may be that the EU and the European Monetary Union, in the face of the incessant factual and verbal hostility (often well beyond the level of non-politically correct) of the government led by four horsemen of the apocalypse (Conte, Salvini, Di Maio and Toninelli), find a way to corner Italy to get it out of any misunderstanding and, not being able to drive it out, force it to exclude itself from the euro under the conditions imposed that minimize the damage to the remaining countries and facilitate the reconstruction of Europe.  

It is quite true that the treaties contain no provisions for expulsion or the banning of a member country, in order to save the economies of the remaining countries from collapse in the event of an expected default of the sovereign and riotous Italy, but a harsh and preventive cornering could result in necessity and virtue for the EU . 

On the other hand, it is equally true that Italy's reiterated and vaunted conflict with Brussels has now passed every threshold of politically incorrect in the glorification of the violation of the rules, so as to induce Austria itself, supposed friend of Salvini, to peremptorily invite Italy to respect the common rules. 

The same new political and economic lexicon of the four horsemen of the apocalypse contributes to making financial policy incomprehensible to all those who have to defend the savings of customers on the financial markets, supposed ruthless conspiracy speculators; just as it fuels the incomprehension of the heads of government who unfortunately still have to take unanimous decisions in the EU. For example: the "I don't care about the spread" which reminds the elders of the EU of gloomy times; the "we will not go back a millimetre" or "we will stop them on the shore"; the "maneuver of the people", an expression that would make Evita Peron envious; "immoral expenditure", which unexpectedly introduces the concept of an ethical state; “I don't talk to drunks” together with contempt for the leaders of the French government; the overrun of 2,4% of GDP celebrated on the balcony of Palazzo Chigi as a landslide victory against the Brussels bureaucrats; the forecast of public expenditure multipliers that recall the miracle of the multiplication of loaves and fishes, and so on.

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Finally, the friendly fire of those who, on the same day that Conte leaves Ecofin, gave interviews in favor of returning to the lira instead of the euro, could not be missing. Taken together, the statements of the leaders of the League and the Five Stars have created an extravagant political and economic lexicon and in some cases decidedly comical ("We have abolished poverty") which can only leave the European chancelleries stunned; lexicon that can only make us suspect the existence of the unspoken and real intention of the sovereigns in favor of a creeping path to Italexit, even if too often denied. 

On the other hand, the hard cornering of Italy forced to exclude itself from the EU could be beneficial to the other states, including those of Visegrad which enjoy substantial Community funds. For example, many of these would free themselves from the risk of having to share the risks of the Italian public debt and the use of the bailout fund; Community commitments to Italy for migrants would fall; France, faced with the victory of the No-Tavs, could favor a new Tav in the north of the Alps to connect to the countries of the East, and if ever also to the new silk road; Germany, in the face of the victory of the No-Tubs, could seize the opportunity to become with the North Stream the real gas tap of Europe, and so on. 

To Italy left alone in the irritation of the muscular sovereignists, the longed-for return to monetary policy would remain, to that of the free and cheerful management of public finances with the annexed poisonous circle between public spending and interest expense on the debt and to the much regretted competitive devaluations which exempt companies from long-term investments in research and development, recreating a perverse circle as in the past internal inflation and exchange rate devaluations. Finally, the probable non-renewal of maturing public bonds by foreign investors (who own a third of them) would bring the management of the entire public debt back within Italian sovereignty. And so, why not take the opportunity hoped for by some garrulous economists very close and close associates of the yellow-green government to consolidate the debt by invoking love of country? After all, Mussolini did it too with the littorio loan.  

We can complain if the EU forces us out of its club as a state maverick equal to that other maverick by Franti from the novel "Heart"?  

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