THEIstat recently released the updated foreign trade data a November 2012. The consumer goods that provide the greatest impetus to the cyclical increase in exports (+6,6%) are represented by refined petroleum products (+42,5%), sporting goods, games, musical instruments, jewels, medical instruments (+16,2%) and leather goods, excluding clothing (+9,2%). Imports recorded a growth in intermediate products (+0,7%) on the one hand, and a decrease in energy products (-5,0%) and capital goods (-4,9%) on the other. The tendential increase in exports in the month of November is in fact characterized by a very sustained trend for energy products (+41,3%), less accentuated but still positive for durable and non-durable consumer goods (respectively, +10,5% and +5,5%), while a significant reduction was instead recorded for the sales of means of transport, excluding motor vehicles (- 8,7%). On the import side, the trend decrease is more marked the products of mineral extraction from quarries and mines (-42,1%), motor vehicles (-30,6%) and computers, electronic and optical devices (-23,3%). There was an increase in purchases of chemical substances and products (+8,8%), agricultural, forestry and fishing products (+2,5%) and crude oil (+1,9%). In this scenario, in November 2012 a positive trade balance of 2,4 billion was recorded, a clear improvement compared to 2011 (-1,6 billion). From the point of view of the first eleven months of last year the trade balance was positive and reached 8,9 billion, where they stand out machinery, base metals, metal products and refined petroleum products. The most substantial negative balances, on the other hand, concern energy minerals (crude oil and natural gas), chemical substances and products.
The tendential increase in exports (+3,6%) is supported by growth in sales to OPEC countries (+33,0%) and ASEAN countries (+29,3%), while sales to the Netherlands (-10,8%) and the Czech Republic (-9,8%) decreased. The tendential decrease in imports (-8,2%) is affected by the sharp contraction of imports from MERCOSUR countries (-39,9%), Japan (-39,5%) and the United States (-31,3%), contrasted by a sustained increase in purchases from Belgium (+21,7%) and OPEC countries (+10,3%). Despite this, the trade balance for November 2012 shows positive balances against the United States, Switzerland, France, the United Kingdom and EDA countries, while the largest deficits concern OPEC countries, the Netherlands, China, Germany and Belgium.
According to the analysis Istat,increase in sales of refined petroleum products to France and OPEC countries it helps to support the trend growth of national exports by more than one percentage point. The main causes of the slowdown must therefore be sought in the decline in sales of means of transport, excluding motor vehicles, to Germany and France, and of machinery and equipment to France, a sign of the need to intervene promptly in the sector with more effective industrial strategies. There decrease in purchases of motor vehicles from Germany and of computers, electronic and optical equipment from China contributes to the tendential decrease recorded for imports, while the increase in purchases of chemical substances and products from Belgium and of refined petroleum products such as natural gas and crude oil from OPEC countries inhibit further potential positive balances of trade.
From a geographical point of view, the increase in average export values is more sustained for non-EU countries (+4,3%) and for EU ones (+3,9%), while as regards the purchase of goods and services of EU origin (+2,6%) there is a greater increase than for non-EU ones ( +1,6%). The reduction in imported volumes is widespread in all product groupings due to the collapse of domestic demand for consumer goods and mainly concerns capital goods (-19,6%) and durable goods (-15,2%).
