Industrial production in chiaroscuro, in the light of the August results, which indicate a decline on a monthly basis, but an increase on an annual basis. According to data released byIstatin fact, in the month of August production fell by 0,5% compared to July. On the June-August average, however, the variation in production compared to the previous quarter was zero. The car boom continues and the slowdown in August does not seem able to slow down the current recovery.
On an annual basis, the manufacturing index increased by 1%. In the former eight months of 2015 production increased by 0,8% compared to the same period of the previous year.
In August, there were negative cyclical variations for various sectors, such as energy (-4,3%), consumer goods (-0,7%) and intermediate goods (-0,4%). On the other hand, there was no change for capital goods.
On an annual basis, the increase in capital goods (+3,9%) and energy (+3,2%) offset the decline in intermediate goods (-1,8%) and consumer goods (-1,3 %).
Among sectors, the greatest growths, on an annual basis, are those achieved by manufacture of means of transport (+15,5%), coke and refined petroleum products (+9,7%) and electrical appliances and non-electrical domestic appliances (+6,9%). The greatest decreases were recorded for the manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products, electromedical devices, measuring devices and watches (-10,0%), other manufacturing industries, repair and installation of machines and equipment (-9,5 %) and the textile, clothing, leather and accessories (-8,5%).
“There has been a partial correction of the July rebound, essentially related to the energy sector. The boost from the heat wave subsided in August. But for all the groupings the correction was only partial”, he comments Loredana Federico, UniCredit economist, polled by Reuters. Of the same opinion Paolo Mameli of Intesa Sanpaolo also reported by Reuters. “It is a fact that the scenario does not change much. The trend remains that of a progressive recovery in production” he underlines, recalling how historically the August statistics are subject to a certain volatility, linked to the summer closures, which is reflected in subsequent revisions.
The slowdown in emerging economies, led by China, is an unknown factor, but for the moment economists do not observe particularly significant impacts on the Italian system which, according to Palazzo Chigi's forecasts, is moving towards growth of 1% this year.
“The indications from the August confidence surveys are positive. Surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector continued to signal expansion of activity, albeit at a slower pace”, underlines Federico.
Broadening our gaze to European partners, in August industrial production recorded a drop of 1,2% in Germany, after the monthly growth of the same amount recorded in July, while in France it showed growth of 1,6% after the drop by 1,1% from the previous month.
Returning to Italy, according to economists it is reasonable to think that in the third quarter there will be at least a repeat, if not a slight acceleration, of industrial production compared to the April-June period, when there was a growth of 0,4%.
