“There are more dead than born, but not only for the pandemic”. In his speech at the Rimini Meeting, the president of Istat Gian Carlo Blangiardo, speaking at the Rimini Meeting, outlines a gloomy future for Italy from a demographic point of view and anticipates the repercussions that this negative trend will have on the economy of the country.
The demographic decline will make us lose 32% of the GDP
“On June 58,87st of this year, there were 1,2 million residents in Italy, in ten years we will have lost 2052 million people. In 5 we lose XNUMX million people, if we go by 2070 we will lose 11 million people. A large country must have a large population. Today we are in 24th place among the countries of the world, in 30 years we will be in 38th place”, explained Blangiardo.
The president of Istat also spoke of the repercussions that the negative demographic dynamics will have on the Italian economy: "Today's GDP is around 1.800 billion, in 2070 we will have something like 1.200 billion, i.e. 560 billion less, i.e. a 32% of GDP less just because of the demographic change,” he added.
The two causes of the population decline
But what are they the reasons for this dynamic? According to Blangiardo, “one of the causes is the negative natural balance: more dead than born. In the first 5 months of 2008, 232 children were born; in 2022 149 thousand children. The variation is 36%”. This happens, he commented, also because, "we discount the effects of the years in which few children were born".
Finally, the number one of Istat underlined that in Italy “mothers are missing: in 2008 there were 14 million women of productive age, today we have reached 11,7 million, in ten years there will be 10,4 million, in 30 years there will be 9 million”, concluded the president of Istat, indicating this as one of the technical causes of the low birth rate in Italy.
