In 2016, Istat expects a 1,1% increase in GDP in real terms, a higher growth rate than that recorded in 2015 (+0,8%). In the "Prospects for the Italian economy for 2016", Istat estimates that domestic demand net of inventories would contribute positively to GDP growth by 1,3 percentage points, while net foreign demand and the change in inventories would provide a negative equal to one tenth of a percentage point each. However, Istat warns that “a more decisive slowdown in international trade and the possible rekindling of tensions on the financial markets constitute downside risks for the current forecast framework. Conversely, a more accentuated recovery of the capital accumulation process, linked to the development of national and European policies, would constitute a further stimulus to economic growth”.
Household spending in real terms is estimated to have increased by 1,4%, fueled by the increase in disposable income and the improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, Istat expects a recovery in investments (+2,7%) which will benefit from the strengthening of expectations on economic growth and the improvement in credit market conditions. The consolidation of progress on the employment front (+0,8% in terms of work units) is expected to be accompanied by a reduction in the unemployment rate, which is estimated to stand at 11,3%. The consolidation of progress on the employment front (+0,8% in terms of work units) is expected to be accompanied by a reduction in the unemployment rate, which is estimated to stand at 11,3%.
