Many less but much longer lasting. This is how the Italians of the future will be according to the latest demographic forecasts published by Istat. In detail, the Institute of Statistics calculates that in 2045 the resident population in Italy will be equal to 58,6 million people and in 2065 to 53,7 million. In other words, in 49 years we will be 7 million fewer than in 2016 (60,7 million).
In short, in the future, births will not be enough to compensate for deaths. In the median scenario, after a few years of forecasting, the natural balance reaches -200 thousand, to then pass the threshold -300 and -400 thousand units less in the medium and long term.
Still by 2065, however, the average life expectancy will grow to 86,1 years for men and up to 90,2 years for women, a significant increase compared to the 2015 figures (80,1 and 84,6 respectively). The average age of the population will reach over 50 in 2065, while today it is 44,7.
Part of the ongoing aging process is explained by the fact that the baby boom generations (those born between 1961 and 75) will enter the late working age (40-64 years) and the senile age (65 and over). The peak of aging will hit Italy in 2045-50, when there will be a share of over-34s close to XNUMX%.
In the estimate of the resident population expected for Italy a a decisive contribution is exercised by migrations, the balance of which is expected to be positive, being on average higher than 150 thousand units per year (133 thousand the last recorded in 2015). In the median scenario traced by Istat, the additional effect of the migratory balance on the dynamics of births and deaths results in 2,5 million additional residents over the entire forecast period.
