From Istat data on third quarter 2012, it emerges that the GDP decreased by 0,2% compared to the previous quarter and by 2,4% compared to the third quarter of the previous year. Compared to the second quarter, the main aggregates of domestic demand decreased significantly, with drops of 0,8% in consumption and 1,4% in gross fixed investments. From the point of view of the trade balance, imports decreased by 1,4%, while exports increased by 0,5%. At the same time, the change in inventories and net foreign demand they contributed positively to the change in GDP (0,2 and 0,6 percentage points respectively).
La lack of an effective industrial strategy weighs on the decrease in intermediate goods (-8,0%), capital goods (-5,8%), consumer goods (-5,5%) and energy (-4,4%). In the trend comparison, the industrial sectors that are growing are: manufacturing of chemical products (+1,1%) and food, beverage and tobacco industries (+0,4%). The sector that recorded the most consistent decrease was that of the manufacture of rubber and plastic items (-14,7%). In cyclical terms, the added value of industry increased by 0,2%, while those of services (-0,2%) and agriculture (-6,7%) decreased. Too little, considering that in tendential terms, the added value recorded negative changes in all sectors (-6,7% construction, -5,1% agriculture, -3,9% industry in the strict sense and -1,3% services).
The worsening trend data is reflected in market demand, where gross fixed investment decreased by 9,8%, with decreases of 18,5% for investments in means of transport, 11,8% for spending on machinery and other products and 6,7% for investments in construction. Household spending has decreased by 4,6%, where purchases of durable goods decreased by 12,5%, those of non-durable goods by 4,7% and purchases of services by 2,1%.
Finally, a comparison of the third quarter 2012 data with some of the more advanced economies. In the period considered, GDP increased in quarterly terms by 1,0% in the United Kingdom, by 0,7% in the USA and by 0,2% in France and Germany, while it decreased by 0,9% in Japan. In trend terms, there was an increase of 2,5% in the USA, 0,9% in Germany, 0,2% in Japan and 0,1% in France, while the change was negative in the United Kingdom (-0,1%). Overall, the GDP in the Euro Area decreased by 0,1% compared to the previous quarter and by 0,6% compared to the same quarter of 2011, a sign that much work will still have to be done to overcome the recessionary spiral generated by the financial crisis.
Istat studies are attached.
