In January, Italian consumption grew by 1,7% over the year and by 0,1% over the month. This was announced this morning by Istat, specifying that on average for the November-January 2015 quarter, the index recorded an increase of 0,1% compared to the previous quarter.
In comparison with December, sales of food products increase by 0,4%, those of non-food products remain unchanged. Compared to January 2014, the raw index of total sales marks an increase of 1,7%. The index of the value of food product sales increased by 2,9%, that of non-food products by 1,0%.
Sales by distribution form, compared with January 2014, show an increase both for large-scale distribution (+3,4%) and, to a lesser extent, for companies operating on small surfaces (+0,2% ).
CONFCOMMERCIO: 2015 GDP +1,1%
The new forecasts from Confcommercio also arrived this morning, which for this year expects growth in the Italian GDP of 1,1%, which is then destined to rise to 1,4% in 2016. This is a rosy forecast higher than than that made by other institutions or associations.
2015 CONSUMPTION +1,2%
As for consumption, according to Confcommercio, after a drop of 1,1% in 2014 and a good nine points between 2008 and 2014, in 2015 they will register a growth of 1,2% while next year they will increase by 1 %. The expansion of consumption for 2015 will be emphasized by the Expo effect in terms of consumption on the Italian territory also by foreigners.
Growth will be higher in the Center-North with +1,5% and lower in the South with 0,3%, while next year there will be +1,3% in the Center-North and +0,2% in the South. On the recovery of the purchasing power of families - notes the Confcommercio Study Center - the first positive impulses coming from employment will act with an increase in employed persons of 83 thousand units this year and 96 thousand next year.
EXPO IS WORTH 2,7 BILLION, 0,2% OF GDP
Lastly, according to the traders' association, Expo will generate an additional effect on growth in 2015 of 2,7 billion euros, equal to 0,2% of GDP in 2015 and 0,3% of total consumption. According to Confcommercio, 8 million more foreigners will arrive in Italy thanks to Expo, for a total of 58,6 million foreign tourists. The forecasts for 2016 in terms of GDP do not incorporate the predictable positive effect of the extraordinary Jubilee which, according to Confcommercio, could be worth an additional 0,2-0,3% of GDP.
SANGALLI: CUT UNPRODUCTIVE PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
After years of minus signs and after that “every Italian has lost an average of 2.100 euros in consumption in seven years, now we can speak with more optimism – commented the president Carlo Sangalli -. There are conditions for a recovery that is not only static. After the Italians have done their homework, willy-nilly, they are now waiting for legitimate recognition, which can only come from a reduction in unproductive public spending and a relaxed fiscal policy that loosens the tax grip on households and businesses. Because taxes and public spending have grown too much and steadily in recent years. We need to break this vicious circle so that 2015 can be remembered as the year of the restart”.
