Istat estimates that Italy will grow by 0,2% in quarterly terms in the fourth quarter of 2015, similarly to what it did in the third.
In the monthly note, the statistical institute explains that the growth obtained from the comparison between the quarterly data corrected for the working days of 2015 with those of 2014 "is equal to 0,7%".
“In the third quarter, the positive trend of the Italian economy – writes Itat in the last lines of the new monthly note – was driven by the growth of added value in the manufacturing sector and, to a limited extent, in services. For the fourth quarter we expect the continuation, albeit at a moderate pace, of the expansionary phase that began in the first few months of the year. The growth path remains characterized by the current phase of the international cycle which negatively affects the dynamics of Italian exports”.
The confidence interval for fourth quarter growth is between zero and +0,4%. But “the positive result would mainly contribute to the growth in consumption which, in part, would be reflected in the increase in imports. On the other hand, the difficulties in restarting the investment cycle remain”, observes Istat. Basically, the recovery of domestic consumption is still weak and not sufficient by itself to restart the industrial system as a whole. This is why the sprint which was seen in recent months and which gave hope not only to the government (which raised its estimates from 0,7 to 0,9 per cent during the year), but also to the Bank of Italy (Governor Visco had let himself go to an estimate that would have come close to 1% at the end of the year), has been weakening. Until the end of the year.
The government has not yet corrected its forecasts despite the fact that the Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan, in recent days, had hinted that an impact of the terrorist advance on the economy could not be excluded. For now, however, the government estimate evaluates real growth, not corrected for the calendar, equal to 0,9% in 2015, even if Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has raised the possibility that it will end at +0,8%.
