In the second quarter of 2018, Italian GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 0,2% on the previous three months and by 1,1% on an annual basis. It is the lowest quarterly increase since the third quarter of 2016. These are the preliminary estimates communicated today by Istat communicates Istat. The variation acquired for 2018 is equal to +0,9%. The boost to growth has therefore diminished compared to the previous peak and the Italian economy is moving amidst the uncertainties related to protectionism and uncertainty about the economic policies of the Lega-M5S government.
“In the second quarter of 2018, the dynamics of the Italian economy slowed down – explains Istat – registering a lower increase than in the previous 6 quarters. The gradual deceleration that emerged in the recent period is reflected in a further reduction in the trend growth rate which drops to 1,1%. With the result for the second quarter, the duration of the current phase of expansion of the Italian economy reaches 16 quarters, with overall growth over this period of 4,5%. However, the level of GDP is 0,7% lower than the previous peak in the second quarter of 2011”.
In detail, the second quarter of 2018 had two working days less than the previous quarter and one working day more than the second quarter of 2017". The dynamics of the economy thus results in a "slowdown", underlines the Institute. In fact, in the first quarter, cyclical growth was equal to 0,3% in cyclical terms and 1,4% on an annual basis.
The slowdown is affected by the synthesis between the decrease in added value in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors and the increase in industry and services. On the demand side, there is a positive contribution from the national component (gross of inventories) and a negative contribution from the net foreign component.
The dynamics of the economy thus results in a "slowdown", explains the Institute. In fact, in the first quarter, cyclical growth was equal to 0,3% in cyclical terms and 1,4% on an annual basis.
At the same juncture, it is also necessary to underline the "slowdown" in the GDP of the Eurozone which in the second quarter recorded +0,3% in the economic situation, while in the Union as a whole it rose by 0,4% (+0,4% in the first quarter in in both cases). On a trend basis, GDP rose by 2,1% after +2,5% in the first quarter and by 2,2% in the EU28 against the previous +2,4%. Eurostat communicates it with the flash estimate.
