This year, under the tree, Italians will find a gift package full of sacrifices, but also - hopefully - the prospect of a recovery and the salvation of the euro. The test by fire for the Monti government is getting closer and closer: between today and tomorrow the text of the new maneuver worth over 20 billion will be approved by decree by the Council of Ministers, then the ball will pass to the Chamber. The final vote of Montecitorio is expected by December 17, while the definitive go-ahead from the Senate should arrive by Christmas.
Before claiming victory, however, the hottest weekend of the winter still needs to be overcome. While his team is busy filing the latest changes to the measures to be put in place, the Premier has to face a very busy schedule of appointments. Today the showdown with the governors of the Regions and with the social partners.
Let's now take stock of the main upcoming measures (subject to last-minute corrections):
PENSIONS: PRO-RATA CONTRIBUTION, SENIORITY, EQUALIZATION
Pro-rata contribution for everyone. From next year, social security checks will be calculated using the contributory method, which is less advantageous than the salary method. Basically, the contributions actually paid and the average life expectancy at the time of retirement will be taken into account. With this measure, the Dini reform of 1995 is extended to all workers.
Retirement age of women in the private sector. The aim is to accelerate the increase: the ceiling should pass from 2012 to 60 in 63, to then catch up with that of men no longer in 2026, but already in 2018.
The dilemma on retirement pensions. The heaviest solution involves raising the contributory age necessary to retire (regardless of age) from 40 to 41 or even 43 years. Alternatively, the "quotas" system could be updated: today people leave their jobs at 96 (60 of age and 36 of contributions, or 61 + 35), a figure that will rise to 97 in 2013. We plan to anticipate this shot to 2012, also accelerating the increase up to 100.
Pensions and inflation. There is the hypothesis of blocking for 2012 the adjustment of social security checks to the increase in prices. Only the lowest treatments would be excluded. The stop would make it possible to save between 4 and 5 billion euros, but could cause a further depression in consumption. On this point, the opposition of the trade unions and part of the centre-left is particularly firm.
Self-employed workers: higher contributions. At the moment the rate is 20-21% and should go up by one or two percentage points.
TAX ON THE FIRST HOME, THE ICI-IMU IS COMING
It should be a variation on the ICI theme, revisited on the basis of the principles of fiscal federalism. The rate should be lower than that of the tax abolished by the Berlusconi government (6,6 per thousand), but it is probable that the real sting comes from the revaluation of the 15% cadastral income (which however could be deferred to a subsequent enabling law ). However, the taxation should be progressive, with deductions for the lowest incomes, up to the exclusion for the weaker groups.
MINI ASSETS FOR THE SUPER-RICH
The hypothesis of a patrimonial light regime (with a rate between 1,5 and 2 per thousand) on capital exceeding 1-1,5 million euro seems to be confirmed. Here, however, the Monti government is between two fires: on the one hand the promise made to Berlusconi to abstain from the patrimonial system, on the other the need to introduce it to obtain the support of the left and the trade unions on the pension reform. Alternatively, the government could opt for a super ICI on second and third homes.
LUXURY TAX
A new entry on Friday is the hypothesis of a tax on luxury goods such as yachts and large-engined cars. The levy should concern goods whose value exceeds a certain threshold. This limit is still being discussed, because the ceiling is closely related to the decisions that will be taken on the alternative between property and ICI properties on second and third homes. In essence, if in the end the tax only affects real estate, it would have to be offset by another tax on luxury goods.
BOND TO PAY OFF THE DEBT WITH COMPANIES
The hypothesis of repaying the pending debts of the public administration (more than 70 billion) is gaining ground by offering government bonds to the creditor companies. It is possible that the measure is not included in Monday's package and a subsequent maneuver is postponed.
TAX: MORE IRPEF AND VAT, LESS IRAP
There remains the possibility of a further upward adjustment of the third VAT rate, which Tremonti had already raised from 20 to 21%. The new increase of one point would make it possible to recover another 4,2 billion euros a year. If, on the other hand, 23% were reached, the gain for the state coffers would be 8 billion. The money collected in this way could be used to reduce the IRAP on the lowest incomes. But the real news emerged yesterday with the hypothesis of an increase of one or two points on the personal income tax rates currently at 41 and 43%. Beyond the threshold of 75.000 euros a year, the tightening of Irpef will start.
LIBERALIZATIONS, DISMISSIONS AND SIMPLIFICATIONS
A precise commitment on the subject of liberalizations - especially as regards local public services - came directly from the Minister of Economic Development and Infrastructure, Corrado Passera. The first steps towards the decommissioning plan and the completion of postal deregulation should also become a reality.
INFRASTRUCTURE AND ENERGY BONUS
The extension of the 55% deduction on building interventions for energy saving is expected, which could concern the years 2012, 2013 and 2014. The release of funds for infrastructures will also arrive.
OXYGEN FOR SMEs
The Guarantee Fund for SMEs, the main tool for accessing credit, should be strengthened.
HEALTHCARE CUTS
Probable advance from 2013 to 2012 of the 2,5 billion cut to the National Health Fund. The following year the cuts could rise to 5 billion.
CUTS TO LOCAL AUTHORITIES
On this front, the government could recover between 3 and 4 billion: two from the Regions, one from the Municipalities and 500 million from the Provinces.
ANTI-EVASION MEASURES
The most probable is the increase in traceability, which would be obtained by lowering the maximum threshold for the use of cash down to 300 or 500 euros.
