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Ireland, Sinn Fein on the way to victory: what about Brexit?

Surprisingly, the nationalist left-wing party won 24,5% of the votes, beating the two traditional centre-right competitors. The data is still provisional but the direction is clear. The unknowns about the Dublin government

Ireland, Sinn Fein on the way to victory: what about Brexit?

Ireland rewards Sinn Fein, the left-wing party considered nationalist (due to its past role of political support for the IRA). Surprisingly, he is turning out to be the real winner of the Irish political elections, under the leadership of Mary Lou Mc Donald: according to the still partial results, he would in fact have achieved 24,5% of the votes. Sinn Fein, at the best result in its history, would thus have won 29 seats. In second place are the centre-right Fine Gael party of outgoing premier Leo Varadkar and the opposition party Fianna Fail with about 22% each. The Greens finished fourth with 7,1% of the vote.

MARY LOU MC DONALD: REVOLUTIONARY RESULT

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald called the result a "revolution", adding that she wanted to form a coalition with smaller left-wing parties, but at the same time not ruling out an agreement with Fine Gael or Fianna Fail which for decades dominate Irish politics.

The victory of Sinn Fein in the policies of the Republic of Ireland, already cleared as a government political force in Belfast, could open up new scenarios. For example, it concerns the drive to unify Ireland by seizing the opportunity offered by Brexit and the difficult solution of the customs and political tangle at the internal border. Sinn Fein has been able to ride, according to many UK commentators, the anger of the weaker sections grappling with the difficulties of finding a home, rising rents and hospital waiting lists combined with the disappointment for the now century-old duopoly in government of the two centre-right parties.

THE SCENARIO OF ALLIANCES AFTER THE VOTE

Leader McDonald said she had started talks with the Greens and smaller left-wing parties in the hope of forming a coalition that cuts out Fine Gael or Fianna Fail. But this is an unlikely scenario. However, you have not ruled out the possibility of an agreement either with Fine Gael or with Fianna Fail.

It is still too early to draw conclusions but the complicated Irish parliamentary arithmetic could, once again, exclude Sinn Fein from government in favor of the two centre-right competitors who could be able to elect more candidates than the competitor from the 160 seats available in Dáil Éireann. the Irish lower house. In short, there is also the hypothesis that the vote fails to clarify which party – provided that there is one – will prove capable of forming a valid coalition to lead the government. And a blockade - which cannot be ruled out - could force new elections.

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