An important operation for the whole country system, as defined by the CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo Carlo Messina at the press conference. Indeed, the probable merger between the first Italian bank and Ubi Banca continues to receive the applause of investors and analysts (but also the perplexity of the historic shareholders of the Bergamo-Brescia institute): after that of Moody's, Fitch and Exane Bnp Paribas , Santander's upgrade also arrived today, the first Spanish bank, which has decided to raise Intesa Sanpaolo's rating from Hold to Buy, i.e. by two categories and thus reaching the highest possible level (in fact, there would be an Outperform rating in the middle). The evaluation of Santander's experts therefore goes from neutral to recommending the purchase, with this motivation: "The operation is creating a purchase opportunity on one of the most interesting situations for capital returns in Europe, with a cash dividend yield about 10%".
“Investors have questioned the bank's high payout – Santander analysts wrote again -, but Intesa has a very defensive profile on revenues and the recently announced agreement with Ubi could lead to higher-than-expected synergies, placing Intesa in a cycle of gradual earnings upgrades, which in turn would support the dividend”. Santander, which did not formulate specific ratings on the Uni operation, also judged the growth objectives communicated by Carlo Messina and linked to the probable merger to be decidedly downwards: "In setting the financial objectives of the agreement, we believe that Intesa has been deliberately conservative . In our view, its target of 6% earnings growth will definitely need to be seen on the upside.
In the meantime, yesterday the "endorsement" also arrived from an important part of the Italian business world, the agricultural one. "Naturally we have no direct interest, but we hope that the creation of the third largest European banking reality will be successful", wrote Ettore Prandini, president of Coldiretti, an association that brings together most of the agricultural production realities, in a letter to Il Sole 24 Ore Italian. “Thanks to his performances – continued Prandini exposing himself clearly – Intesa managed to be both 'the bank of the country' and 'territorial bank'. It is also by looking at this aspect that Coldiretti sees in the merger with Ubi an opportunity – especially for the best performing farms – to access better services and conditions”.
