The season begins quarterly for the big names of the Italian credit, with the focus primarily on consolidation after the gamble that characterized the entire sector last year. The leading banking group in Italy will lead the way, Intesa Sanpaolo, which will broadcast the following on Monday, February 2nd: 2025 accounts and will raise the curtain on the new Business plan 2026-2029.
Intesa Sanpaolo presents its new 2026-2029 Plan
In all this, Intesa, it should be remembered, has kept itself well away from the spotlight on the front ofwave of aggregations. In this regard, in recent days, on the sidelines of the ABI executive, the CEO Charles Messina He played down the issue with a joke: "I didn't bring it up, sorry," he said in response to a question about the alleged "Wild West" that ended up in court, a reference to the investigation into alleged secret agreements linked to the MPS-Mediobanca dossier. The "Wild West" expression recalls a statement he made last June, when had made it clear that he did not want to involve Intesa in out-of-control "fights" in the banking consolidation.
Monday's is therefore a strategic appointment which will mark the second phase of the long-term plan initiated by the group under the guidance of Messina: second Mf, the upcoming strategy aims to consolidate the international dimension of the group, with the levers that will be foreign banks and CIB (Corporate investment banking).
Intesa Sanpaolo: Equita's previews
According to the previews of Equity, the strategy will be articulated along four key guidelines: development of the Wealth Management model, acceleration of digital transformation, consolidation of operational efficiency, and revision of the shareholder remuneration policy.
The heart of the plan will be the growth of less capital-intensive activities, such as asset management, private banking and insurance, in line with the objective of making the more stable revenues and less dependent on interest marginEquita emphasizes that this approach will allow the group to "maintain high profitability and resilience in a context of interest rate normalization."
After the launch of Isybank and the Isytech platform in the previous plan, analysts expect a further push for digitalization with new AI-based projects and process automation. The goal is to offer more personalized products, increase cross-selling, and improve responsiveness across all the group's divisions.
On the efficiency front, Equita highlights the role of continuous technological investments and the progressive reduction of integration costs – expected in the fourth quarter of 2025 – destined to generate positive impacts on the income statement in the coming financial years.
Intesa Sanpaolo and its distribution policy
The Milanese institute could also review the distribution policy, with the company not excluding a payout higher than the current 70% and further flexibility for potential buybacks. The overall cash remuneration, considering dividends e buybacks of treasury shares, is estimated at over 35 billion euros in the period 2025-2029, equal to approximately 35% of the market capitalization.
As regards the fourth quarter 2025, expected on February 2nd, analysts predict results fully in line with the annual guidancea net profit estimated at around 2,3 billion euros, confirming the group's solid profitability despite a context of normalizing interest rates and pressure on the interest margin.
Finally, Equita confirms the judgment buy on Intesa Sanpaolo shares, with a target price of 7,10 euros. As for the next few years, Equita projects a sustained growth until 2029, with an estimated interest margin of 16,5 billion euros.
