Glued to the terminals as happens on important days, the operators bet on the white smoke for the negotiation on the Recovery Fund, focusing on BTP and, by extension, on Italian banks. To give further impetus to the sector, however, is the lunge of Intesa Sanpaolo on Ubi. The bank chaired by Letizia Moratti advanced by around 1,3% after Carlo Messina raised the public exchange offer on Friday on the prey: in addition to 1,7 newly issued Intesa Sanpaolo shares, Ubi shareholders will receive a cash consideration of 0,57 euro. Therefore, the total value of the offer is equal to 4,1 billion, of which 3,5 billion in shares and 652,2 million in cash.
Even after this relaunch, Intesa underlined (+0,33%), the institution's pro-forma Common Equity Tier 1 ratio will exceed 13% in 2021 and the increase in earnings per share is estimated in about 6% compared to the 2019 earnings per share. Numbers that tip the balance of comparison in favor of the system bank, which could exceed the 67% threshold, making consolidation easier. A prospect that is already causing the first aftershocks in the sector, now convinced that the earthquake is near.
Not surprisingly, second The messenger, there is already a meeting between Jean Pierre Mustier, CEO of Unicredit (which has already appealed to the Antitrust against Intesa pigliatutto) and Giuseppe Castagna, the CEO of Bpm bank (+8,51%), this morning just above 1,5 euros. In fact, the institute in Piazza Meda seems to be on the eve of a historical strategic choice: or the merger with Unicredit itself or an aggregation welcome to the Treasury with Mps (+8,37%). Without ruling out Bper (-1,4%), already engaged in the purchase of the branches that Intesa will have to sell to comply with the agreements made with the Antitrust.
The market looks particularly at bpm, which has long been one of the favorite stocks to speculate on the sector, as the great protagonist of the new phase of mergers. The Bloomberg consensus highlights a fundamental average target of 1,45 euro, where the most recent rating is that of JP Morgan: Underweight with a target of 0,9 euro. Websim-Intermonte is much more optimistic, with an Interesting recommendation and a target price of 1,95 euros.
In the past, bank risk scenarios have caused more disappointments and rumors than concrete deals. But the novelty introduced by Intesa's Ops is such that any evolution seems possible, even if Mustier has never hidden his skepticism on every possible M&A deal, national or cross-border. This is also why Fidentiis believes “most likely in agreement between Bpm and Bper".
The low valuation (0,20 times the price/target ratio of the Equity) also favors interest in Bpm, also in consideration of the badwill that would be generated (more than 8,5 billion) and the tax credits: the value of probable defaults is around 1,3 billion.
