"I think that going to vote is an expression of democracy and participation in civil society, so I will go and vote 'No'". One week after the referendum on the extension of the concessions at sea (within 12 miles from the coast), Davide Tabarelli, president of Nomisma Energia and one of the most accredited Italian experts in this strategic sector for the economy, reveals to FIRSTonline the reason for his position and fixes some fixed points in the great confusion that reigns over the real production of hydrocarbons in Italy, its impact on the environment, on damage to the economy caused by poorly documented positions while the ongoing judicial investigations into Tempa Rossa and the involvement of Minister Federica Guidi have added more fuel to the fire.
“Companies, and we have some of the best in the world, thus become victims of a 'civil war' that is bad for the country,” Tabarelli says. “We forget – he adds – that the underground resources belong to all Italians and are not owned by the Regions and by those who live in those territories. Instead we are witnessing an institutional short circuit that impoverishes everyone, in a country torn apart by continuous quarrels and environmental fundamentalisms that block everything: even photovoltaic, wind power and biomass”. Judgment on the government articulated: “Matteo Renzi is young and is a very good politician even if perhaps a little reckless. He was right to try to unblock strategic projects like that of Tempa Rossa but he underestimated the veto power of the Regions which is difficult to contain without intervening directly on Title V of the Constitution. As for the public debt, we are discounting the federalist choices made at the beginning of the XNUMXs”.
Let's start with next week's referendum: why will you vote no?
“I am convinced that the quorum will not be reached precisely because there is an excess of confusion, almost a paradox, about this consultation. To begin with, it is wrong to speak of a no-TRIV referendum: new offshore drilling is already blocked. Many voters don't know it and many don't remember it, but decree 128 of 2010 introduced a ban on drilling within 12 miles (about 21 kilometres) of the coast. The Berlusconi government launched it with a coup by senators from the Right who also garnered the support of the Left, thanks to this alleged transversal environmentalism which is the real cause of many problems we are facing. In those days in Mexico, the leak in the BP field spilled 60 barrels of oil a day into the sea, but we were the only country to decide to ban drilling. Furthermore, since 2013, nobody knows or remembers it, it is also forbidden to drill in the Tyrrhenian Sea. Too bad, because we have a lot of oil and gas”.
How much were the projects halted by the next two bans worth?
“They envisaged investments of around 5 billion. The Monti and Letta governments had already tried to unblock the impasse with a more expeditious procedure that circumvented the regional vetoes but without success. The Regions ride the protest precisely by leveraging the delegations on the subject of energy that they received when Title V of the Constitution was reformed in a federalist key in 2001”.
The 2016 Stability Law intervened on all of this, extending the existing concessions. Extension that was challenged before the Consulta by 10 Regions, then dropped to 9. The constitutional reform that will be voted on in October will also redesign Title V and the relationship with the Regions, but in the meantime what would happen now if the yes wins?
“To answer I have to take a step back. Initially the questions of unconstitutionality posed by the Regions were 6. The government changed its position, leaving only the extension of the existing concessions standing. So that the only question admitted by the Consulta concerns this last point and nothing else”.
What are the consequences of the referendum?
“If the quorum were exceeded, it is likely that the yes would win. Until now, when a thirty-year concession expires, it is possible to request, by passing the foreseen checks, an initial extension for 10 years and then, up to three consecutive times, for a further five. What would happen after the vote? Probably that no concessions would be extended even if the governor of Puglia claims the opposite: in his opinion, the system of extensions would remain standing ”.
And if the no wins?
“If the quorum is not reached or if the no wins, the duration of the concessions – as established by the Stability Law – is extended to the useful life of the field. It would therefore no longer be necessary to ask for an extension, it would happen automatically. It is a legally weak provision even if it should be noted that technically the deposit is depleted, on average, after 20-30 years”.
So, does the dispute run the risk of not ending with the referendum?
"It's possible. On the other hand, the exasperated political tones we see on television every evening do not facilitate rational and balanced solutions, forgetting that in Italy the monitoring of plants is constant and the companies must guarantee stringent procedures. It should be emphasized that neither Emilia Romagna, where the most important platforms are located in front of Ravenna, nor Sicily took the field while Abruzzo withdrew after the government canceled the Unblock Italy. Michele Emiliano's Puglia, which has no plant in the water, is instead lined up for a clear anti-Renzian political choice. Finally, I point out that about 90% of the production within the 12 miles, about ninety platforms, concern gas, the cleanest fuel, and not oil".
In this already quite complicated situation, the Tempa Rossa and Val d'Agri affair broke out which concerns plants on land and not at sea. Precisely in Val d'Agri, as seen in the photo taken in Tramutola, oil naturally emerges from the ground.
“The investigation by the judiciary is underway and we have to wait for the final outcome. The story, however, has nothing to do with the referendum even if there are those who compare the investigations to the electoral deadline, going to further confuse things”.
In this situation, what is Italy losing?
“The investment of Tempa Rossa, on which Exxon and then Total moved first, is worth from 1 to 1,5 billion, which is still at a standstill. The damage to ENI in Val d'Agri can be estimated at around 2,7 million euros of lost production per day, almost 1 billion a year of which 10% goes directly to Basilicata. If we then look at the plants within 12 miles, around 600 million euros a year are at stake – for 2 billion cubic meters of gas and 0,4 million tons of oil – out of the 3 billion euros generated by national production. More generally, it can be said that Italy spends 25 billion a year to import 90% of its gas and oil consumption and that, of this figure, at least 2-3 billion a year could remain in Italy, with evident occupational effects. However, I believe that the greatest damage is due to the deindustrialization of the country: in ten years we have lost 5% of GDP, we are poorer and it is painful to see how industrial enterprises of the highest order that Italy should exhibit end up suffering instead a sort of lynching. This is the wealth we lose”.
Looking at the international oil market, how do you expect prices to move? Will there be a rise in prices?
“Estimates are that by the end of the year the price of a barrel could go back above 50 dollars and to rise to 60-70 dollars from next year”.
Last consideration on electricity and gas. There is also discussion on this and on how to achieve complete liberalization in 2018. The hypothesis of auctions to distribute customers still on the captive market among operators is being discussed.
“The latest tariff revisions decided by the Authority for the current quarter recorded record decreases of 10% for gas and 5% for electricity. They are discounts related to the oil crash. This result is the result of massive drilling carried out in the United States for the production of shale oil. Other than liberalizations and controversies about who to give the 24 million customers under the protection regime ".
