“Chasing an improbable revenge and lining up for the No in the referendum on constitutional reform, Silvio Berlusconi does not realize that he has betrayed his electorate of reference and is heading towards a sure suicide: he believes he is giving Renzi a shove but in reality gives it to himself and to common sense”. Bruno Tabacci, the president of the Democratic Center, has never had anti-Berlusconi obsessions but he is merciless on the last somersaults of the leader of Forza Italia and, like Giorgio Napolitano, thinks that in the October referendum not only the political destiny of Matteo Renzi and of his Government but the very possibility of reforming and modernizing Italy. He explains why in this interview with FIRSTonline.
FIRSTonline – Honorable Tabacci, Silvio Berlusconi has accustomed us to a thousand twists and turns, but you expected to see him lined up for the NO in the referendum on the constitutional reform alongside the Travaglios, the Ingroias, the Di Maios and the many who for years have used against of him the same polemical arguments they use today against Renzi?
TABACCI – Once again Berlusconi has allowed a tactical choice to prevail without any political perspective which overturns the orientation which had led him to approve the first readings of the constitutional reform and which condemns him to the substantial betrayal of his electorate of reference. I still remember the barrage of criticisms of Title V of the Constitution that the business world, which voted for Berlusconi, expressed in the endless hearings that, from 2001 to 2006 but also in subsequent years, I promoted when I was president of the Productive Activities Commission of the Chamber, up to the current legislature during which I preside over the bicameral for Simplification: in fact, there are rightly still those who complain that for every exceptional transport, road hauliers are forced to ask for authorization from every Region they cross and those who stigmatize the short-sighted energy, environmental and tourism policies of the Regions and fortunately the health devolution has not been achieved. Before Berlusconi shared the criticisms of Title V and now that those criticisms have become the heart of the constitutional reform Berlusconi completely changes direction and abandons his original world by supporting the NO in the referendum and joining the 5 Star Movement: a greater political suicide than this had never seen.
FIRSTonline – In your opinion, what prompted Berlusconi to reverse his positions which had initially led him to support the reform of the Senate and Title V and which, in the end, instead crushed him on the opposite front?
TABACCI – The state of confusion that has gripped him for some time in politics. Berlusconi no longer has a precise line, just think of what he did in view of the next administrative elections: in Milan he suffered the hegemony of the League even if covered by Parisi's fig leaf, while in Rome a gasp of despair induced to opt for Marchini and to move away from the League and from Meloni. In the referendum he pursues an impossible revenge by trying to mess things up and trying to push Renzi without realizing that in reality he is only playing Grillo's game and that the push is given to himself and to common sense.
FIRSTonline – On the Foglio there is an authentic uprising of citizens disappointed by Berlusconi's referendum twists and turns and even the political scientist Angelo Panebianco wrote in the Corriere that the turning point of the Forza Italia leader is one of the most glaring paradoxes of the October constitutional consultation: the Could Berlusconi's about-face unleash new disagreements in the moderate area of Forza Italia?
TABACCI – In Forza Italia there is a lot of bad mood and a lot of unease. The truth is that Berlusconi is no longer the glue of a party that has lost its bearings. I'd like to know what Berlusconi's friends like Confalonieri think, who have always tried to persuade him to be reasonable. Berlusconi has not yet understood that, by claiming to claim a hypothetical defeat of Renzi in the referendum, he will actually be the first to be defeated.
FIRSTonline - Precisely because Berlusconi is always wavering, could it be that after the administrative elections he will change again, correcting the current anti-reform line in the referendum?
TABACCI – I don't know, because in reality Berlusconi is now offside and has been since he betrayed the social bloc that had initially bet on him to move the country and which today is looking in other directions.
FIRSTonline – In your opinion, was Renzi wrong in personalizing the referendum, paving the way for a sort of plebiscitary pronouncement on his leadership?
TABACCI – If I think of the vehemence of Amintore Fanfani and the prudence of Aldo Moro in the referendum on divorce, I am increasingly convinced that the less popular consultations are personalised, the better. But, having said that, when Renzi says that, if he loses the referendum, he takes note of it and leaves politics he does nothing but perform an act of responsibility, because his government is inextricably linked to constitutional and institutional reforms and Giorgio Napolitano is absolutely right to warn that if, unfortunately, the No wins the referendum, it would be the end of the policy of renewal and reforms in Italy.
FIRSTonline – Beyond Berlusconi's somersaults, there is another paradox that is emerging from the incipient referendum campaign and it is that of the M5S which appears to be the major beneficiary of the electoral reform related to that of the Senate but, albeit with great embarrassment, remains attested on the NO to the referendum: will he end up dissociating himself or will he remain a prisoner of his own demagoguery?
TABACCI – The 5 Star Movement is by definition everything and its opposite. The most lucid of the grillini understand very well that they would have every interest in seeing the YES win in the referendum and thus support the Italicum which can benefit them in the ballots, but they are victims of their demagoguery and do not have the political strength to draw the consequences and to abandon the NO to the constitutional reform, even for them suicidal line.
FIRSTonline – Even the Pd minority does not seem to shine for consistency: in Parliament they voted, albeit obtorto collo, for the constitutional reform and now they would like freedom to vote in the referendum to send Renzi home and fantasize about an improbable government of national unity for the after: what do you think of these manoeuvres?
TABACCI – I think there are those who play with fire. The minority of the Democratic Party bears the political responsibility for the many limits that the constitutional reform has but, instead of defending it, it would like to distance itself in hatred of Renzi: do general interests never count in its horizon? This is not how a policy at the service of the country is done.
FIRSTonline – In conclusion, what political scenarios do you see, depending on whether the YES or NO wins, after the referendum?
TABACCI – If the YES to the constitutional reform wins, as I hope, in the referendum, Renzi will consolidate and open immediately after the Pd congress to strengthen his leadership. At that point the spaces for the internal minority will be reduced and a break in the Democratic Party could be reached. On the general level, however, I have good reasons to believe that Renzi will not propose to bring forward the general elections, because he will try to capitalize on the fruits of the economic recovery by appearing to vote in 2018 with a budget maneuver capable of significantly cutting taxes.
FIRSTonline – And if instead the NO prevailed?
TABACCI – Then Balkan scenarios would open up. There would be not only a government crisis but an institutional twist that would make governance impossible with the probable prospect of going to elections with a new ultra-proportional electoral system that would make it very difficult to form majorities and would force the grillini themselves to increasingly isolate themselves or come to terms. We would be in the swamp. Those who have not yet understood that Renzi, like it or not, is the last bulwark against populism could also celebrate the premier's exit linked to the victory of the No vote in the referendum, but in reality, together with Renzi, we would all lose above all, it would lose the country.
