But if François Hollande wins, what will happen to the Paris Stock Exchange on Monday? And on the other European financial centres? Alarming rumors have been circulating in this regard in recent weeks. “They were put around by the right – assures the economist Karine Berger -. There are no statements from hedge fund managers or indications coming from the CDS on French bonds that can justify these fears for the moment. Not even the trend of the spread of our securities compared to the Bunds has recently had any particular jumps compared to the last few months. And on Thursday, when the polls still showed the socialist candidate as super-favourite, immediately after the debate live on television, our country placed 7,4 billion bonds, the maximum expected from that auction. And with declining yields. No problem. The scaremongering? Propaganda only».
Let's make the introductions right away. Born in 1973, Karine Berger, a brilliant economist, she was for a long time director of the Euler Hermes Sfac research centre. Last year you published a book which was very successful in France, «Les Trente Glorieuses sont devant nous», as if to say the economic miracle (the thirty glorious years of uninterrupted growth that the country had until 1973, a myth in the French imagination) are before us. Yes, an essay finally based on optimism, in a country that has long loved feeling sorry for itself. Well, Berger made her choice in politics.
He opted for Holland. It is part of the his small circle of collaborators. But above all he is the person sent to scout the investors. «I've been touring Europe for at least four months – she says-. Still I was in London yesterday. I meet the representatives of big banks, hedge funds, important insurance groups. They want to learn more about Hollande's economic program. Above all how it intends to cut public spending, how to renegotiate the fiscal compact and how to reform pensions. They are very discreet meetings: no advertising, no journalists».
According to Berger, the reactions she gleaned were unconcerned: «I explain that Hollande wants to reach a public deficit equal to 3% of GDP in 2013 and breakeven in 2017. I also explain that, compared to the European pact, it only wants to add measures for growth, not call into question the treaty. At one point during one of these meetings, an investor from a large American bank approached me. And he said in my ear: but in reality you are conservatives ».
For the economist, Hollande «is a socialist attentive to supply. He is convinced that in France what is lacking is the production capacity, the research that can create new companies to replace the closed ones, too numerous in the last fifteen years. And then he knows that our country needs entrepreneurs who finally take risks. In short, Hollande is not the classic socialist, interested only in the question». Controversially (we are still in the electoral campaign...), Berger adds that «Hollande is an economist by training. He's comfortable with figures. Not like Sarkozy…». One of the cornerstones of the socialist candidate's program is a focus (new for France) on small and medium-sized enterprises. He wants to introduce tax relief for small businesses (a corporate tax of 15% for those with fewer than 20 employees, 30% up to 250 and 35% above that threshold). Hollande's other important project in the economic field is the banking reform «which will be neither like the Volcker law in the United States, nor like the Vickers law in the United Kingdom – continues Berger -. If he is elected, he wants separate speculative and lending activities within an institution, probably through the creation of ad hoc branches, where to concentrate interventions as an investment bank".
However, for Karine Berger, the super-optimist, «my country above all needs trust. And I believe that Hollande can succeed in this, beyond concrete projects. Restore confidence to the French ».
