That sentence dropped with an all-British understatement seven months ago at the end-of-year press conference (“my future is only as a grandfather”) didn't bring much luck to Mario Draghi, who, at that moment, did not hide more than a few ambitions to go up to the Quirinale in Mattarella's place. In a year and a half at Palazzo Chigi, Draghi understood (at his expense) that Italian politics is something very different from muffled meetings of the World Bank or of the same ECB. Loyalty to agreements made, commitments and alliances are not untouchable axioms carved in stone, but changing behaviors subject to the necessary checks.
Having ascertained by now that even central bankers "have a beating heart", there are those who are now wondering about Mario Draghi's future for possible assignments in Italy and above all abroad. However, it should be remembered that the outgoing premier he will be 76 years old next 3 September. Age which, by itself, represents a limitation for many positions. Excluding one of his "descent into the field" like that (very unfortunate) of Mario Monti after the presidency of the Council, however, an international candidacy could be opened for Draghi.
The NATO secretariat will be decided in September 2023
It is nothing new that Italy could aspire to get the job of secretary general of NATO after two mandates to candidates from the North (Danish Rasmussen and Norwegian Stoltenberg). At the recent NATO summit in Madrid, Jens Stoltenberg obtained an extension of his assignment for another year which will expire on 1 September 2023 to deal with the Ukrainian crisis. Naturally, it will be up to the next government to emerge from the elections to name the possible Italian candidate to be submitted first to the European allies and then to all the other member states of the Alliance, starting with the United States. And in any case, a place that will become available in more than a year and at that point many things could change in Italy and abroad.
For the EU Commission Draghi candidate for the EPP or the socialists
Another hypothesis that has been discussed concerns Draghi's candidacy for the presidency of the European Commission in place of the German Ursula von der Leyen which will expire on 31 October 2024. A hypothesis that does not take due account of the need for von der Leyen's successor to be incardinated in one of the European political families even if one does not want to follow (as as happened for the current president) the rule of the “spitzenkandidaten” (ie the main candidates of the political formations).
Macron alone without Draghi's shoulder
But the end of the Draghi government also raises more immediate questions about Italy's international credibility, about the possibility of contributing at European and Atlantic level to face the great challenges of the pandemic, the economic crisis and regional instability due to the ongoing war in Ukraine . At the European level, the French president Emmanuel Macron will find himself alone, without the support of Mario Draghi, during the semester of Czechia's European presidency to guide the process of strengthening the European institutions when they are called upon to test Ukraine's accession to the EU and to take measures aimed at guaranteeing energy security endangered by Moscow's decisions. And without Draghi's shoulder to make the transatlantic link with Washington stronger and more cohesive.
Italy could suffer many EU decisions on energy and the economy
Of course, France will continue to collaborate on many dossiers with Olaf Scholz's Germany. The Franco-German front wagon still remains a solid anchor of the European construction, but Scholz is not Merkel and her government remains too conditioned by the presence of the greens. An Italy too withdrawn to its internal affairs could in the meantime suffer decisions not shared by Brussels in the energy and economic sector which between now and the end of the year will represent the leitmotiv of the action of the Community executive.
An extraordinary meeting of energy ministers will be held in Brussels on Tuesday 26 July to discuss the security of energy supply and the measures to be taken in view of next winter. The Commission's package launched on 20 July is under examination. According to the plan, EU countries could reduce gas demand by 15% between 2022 August 31 and 2023 March 27. The new regulation (on which, however, there is still no agreement between the XNUMX) would also give Brussels the possibility of declaring , after consultation with the member states, a sort of state of emergency on energy security. Measures should be activated which will see the use of the stocks present. Among the EU countries, Italy is the one that has the largest stocks of gas but, at that point, it will have to share them with the other EU countries.
A very understood agenda between now and the end of autumn for the EU
The agenda of the various ministerial meetings in Brussels and in the Czech Republic is very intense: an informal meeting of EU defense ministers will be held on 29 and 30 August; on 31 August there will be the informal meeting of the foreign ministers; the health ministers will meet on 6 and 7 September, while the informal meeting of the finance ministers is scheduled for 9 and 10 September. The General Affairs Council is scheduled for 20 September, the Eurogroup for 3 October and Ecofin for 4 October. The autumn recovery European Council is already set for 6 and 7 October.
G20 in Bali in November: who will represent Italy?
Meetings of ministers will still be held in the context of the G7 chaired by Germany after the summit of heads of state and government held at the end of June at Schloss Elmau in Bavaria. But the question on everyone's lips is now only one: will there be and who will be the Italian premier who will participate in the summit G20 in Bali Indonesia next November 16th and 17th?
