Financial markets continue to ride on a roller coaster of volatility. US stock markets rise, driven by the good performance of consumption, Asia is holding back again: this time it is Japan (-1% in the quarter, -0,2% GDP on an annual basis) that pays for the stop of the Chinese economy, again more in trouble. Local authorities, warns the Financial Times, have donated the funds to fight poverty to the fight against Covid. Europe fears that behind Putin's warning (“the EU is on the verge of energy suicide”) there is some truth. Against this backdrop, the offensive of the hawks started on both sides of the Atlantic: yesterday Fed chairman Jerome Powell announced an all-out war on inflation, a "whatever it takes" with a Draghi-like attitude. Dutchman Klaas Knot calls for rates to rise by half a point within the year. Meanwhile the war goes on.
Stock markets in Asia Pacific mixed following the strong rebound of Wall Street: Nasdaq +2,8%, on the highs of the session. The Hong Kong (-0,6%) and Shanghai (-0,4%) stock exchanges fell. Tokyo's Nikkei rose by 0,5% on the day of publication of data on Japan's GDP for the first three months of the year. The Seoul stock exchange is flat, Sidney (+1%) and Mumbai (+0,7%) are up.
The Japanese yen and the South Korean won appreciate. The offshore yuan weakens against the dollar (-0,3%). Wall Street futures are down slightly. Eurostoxx futures are flat. After Powell's words, the yield on T-bonds has returned to approaching 3%.
US retail sales in April, month over month, increased by 0,9%. Excluding autos, they grew by +0,6% above estimates of 0,4%. However, Wal Mart loses ground (-7%): earnings per share amounted to 1,30 dollars, 0,18 dollars below expectations.
Citigroup sales (+8%). Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's investment vehicle, has bought another stake in the bank, worth $3 billion.
Elon Musk's ballet around Twitter continues (-3%). The Tesla boss said the acquisition of Twitter will not be completed until it is guaranteed that less than 5% of the accounts on the platform are fake.
Stable oil, gas at three-month lows
Somewhat surreal calm on energy markets. Oil climbs 1%, WTI and Brent are paired around $114 a barrel. According to the American Petroleum Institute, US gasoline inventories fell by 5 million barrels, an increase that should keep up the price of the most popular fuel for automation in the United States: for Americans, a full car does not has never been so expensive.
US natural gas +4% to 8,30 dollars. Gas in Europe +3% to 96 euros per megawatt/hour, on the lows for three months.
Eni agrees to pay for the gas in rubles, with Draghi's approval
Eni (+0,7%) announced last night that it will open two current accounts, one in euros, the other in rubles. In practice, Eni will pay in euros, then the amount will be converted into rubles and transferred to Russia by a company independent of the central bank. Eni also clarifies that "the decision was shared with the Italian institutions, in compliance with the current international sanctions framework". The European Commission has reiterated that it is up to the Member States to enforce the sanctions on their companies: if they don't, they expose themselves to the risk of an infringement procedure.
Knot (ECB): rates up by half a point. And the euro rebounds
The euro rose for the third day: +1%, to 1,054, the best session for two months. While awaiting Christine Lagarde's words, the markets are expecting a more aggressive pace in monetary policy by the ECB after the words of Dutch governor Klaas Knot, in line with the statements of the Frenchman Viletoy de Galhau. The traders, he writes Bloomberg, are betting on one point more than interest rates by the end of the year, at +0,5%. Knot, a member of the ECB Governing Council, said he was in favor of an initial hike of a quarter of a point, but added that "a more substantial hike should not be ruled out" and in this case "the next logical step would be half point".
Better than expected, EU GDP: +0,4% in the first quarter
The data on the GDP of the European Union in the first quarter also strengthened the position of the hawks, growing by 0,3% in the euro area and by 0,4% in the EU compared to the previous quarter, denying fears of a sudden braking. Compared to the same period of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 5,1% in the euro area and by 5,2% in the EU. According to the same estimates, employment grew by 0,5% in the euro area and by 0,4% in the EU.
The BTP is close to 3%, the bund again above 1%
In addition to giving a boost to the euro, the Dutch banker's words have triggered a new current of sales on BTPs, with a yield that has come close to 3%: 2,95%, +12 basis points.
The Bund is also back above 1% for the first time in a week. But the spread widens to 192 points.
According to Kenneth Broux, strategist of Societe Generale, a 50-point increase could take place in July or more likely in September, but what matters will be the overall consistency of the squeeze in 2022.
European stock markets rebound. Milan +1,2%.
Piazza Affari appreciates by 1,12% and consolidates over 24 thousand points (24.301). Frankfurt (+1,62%), Paris (+1,3%), Madrid (+1,47) and Amsterdam (+1,15%) are doing better.
London is lagging behind (+0,72%). Inflation in the United Kingdom is biting more and more, rising by 9,1% in April, to levels not seen for forty years. Wages also skyrocketed (+7%), however insufficient to support real incomes, down by 1,9%.
US sting to Allianz: 5,8 billion fine for fraud
Daimler shines in Frankfurt (+3,1%) on the wave of forecasts for 2022.
Bad blow for Allianz, which was ordered to pay the US authorities 5,8 billion dollars in damages for a scam against some hedge funds charged to a branch of the insurance giant.
In Paris, Engie shines (+5,3%) the last of the French heavyweights to publish the numbers which show an Ebtda of around 12 billion, higher than the estimates.
Ft: Unicredit and Commerzbank, the merger failed due to the war
Il Financial Times reveals this morning that Unicredit and Commerzbank have come close to merging, but talks between the two groups have been interrupted with the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
Superstar oil producers: Saras returns to 2020 levels
In the meantime, the Saras show continued in Piazza Affari (+5,35%), which in any case closed well below the highs of the session under the pressure of the results: the quotation returned to the levels of February 2020. Barclays raised the target price at 1,6 euros from 1 euro. Equita raised the recommendation to 'buy' with a target price of 1,4 euros and underlined that “diesel and petrol margins are at record levels in the second quarter with the potential to persist. Saras was able to capture most of the strong second quarter margins and a strong improvement in the net financial position is expected in the second quarter.
The rest of the oil sector is also tonic. Tenaris advances by 1,33% (more than 69% increase since the beginning of the year). Saipem rises by 0,13% pending the capital increase.
Nexi redeems itself, yesterday the best title. Brokers rediscover Unipol
It was the day of redemption for Nexi (+4,2%), the best title in the main basket, which rebounded from its three-year low. Well collected banks. Leads the race Banco Bpm (+ 3,04%).
In great dust Unipol (+3,32%), rediscovered by the operating rooms afterwards The bills. Berenberg raised the recommendation to buy from hold, raising the target price to 7 euro from 6,58, but reduced that on UnipolSai (+0,15%) to hold from buy, raising the related target price to 2,98 from 2,89 euros.
Iveco runs in tow from Daimler. Danieli flies, Campari sold
Iveco (+3,2%) flies among the industrialists, towed by Daimler. Stellantis flat (+0,34%).
Campari -1,2% penalized by the cut in the target price (10 euros from 11,5) by Morgan Stanley.
Danieli (+7,8%) and De Longhi (+4,6%) run between the medium caps.
