The fear of a sudden flare-up of theinflation. Indeed, the price trend is growing. Eurostat confirmed its flash estimate on Tuesday annual inflation rate recorded in January in the Eurozone: +0,9%, from -0,3% in December (but in January 2020 it was 1,4%). In the EU, on the other hand, it went from 0,3 to 1,2% (against 1,7 the previous year). In Italy we rose from -0,3% in December to +0,7% in January.
Should all this worry you? According to study center Ref research, no. “In recent weeks, the debate has focused the spotlight on the risk of a sustained increase in prices – write the analysts – The reason is the budgetary policies launched and announced in the USA. Some well-known economists, moreover of a democratic orientation and in favor of the active use of the budget lever, criticize the new measures because they believe that the fiscal expansion could be excessive. Others, however, maintain that, as they have done for several years, this time too the cycle of the real economy will have no significant impact on inflation”.
In this scenario, since last summer, the Fed clarified that "its new strategy aims to achieve the maximum level of employment: one does not play in advance in raising rates, and before fighting higher inflation it is necessary to verify that this actually occurs", continues Re Ricerche.
As it regards instead the Eurozone, "where the budgetary policy is decidedly more prudent than in the USA - the analysts underline - it does not show concrete signs of price increases: the increases observed and those that will occur are related to transitory factors, such as commodity price hikes and VAT rate changes in Germany. The European recovery, when it materialises, will see a concentration of demand increases in service sectors where spare capacity is high. The crisis has led to a large underutilization of the workforce, only partially captured in official statistics, and in the coming months they will start to emerge signs of downward pressure on wages. Even the ECB can take it easy, also because the maximum levels of employment are really far from us".
