The summer blaze ofinflation it made itself heard on less well-off Italian families. It is what emerges from a Flash from the Parliamentary Budget Office relating to the impact of the cost of living on families and the redistributive effects of the support measures launched by the Government.
According to the analysis, thanks to the supports, from June 2021 to May of this year the impact of inflation on the spending of the poorest households had been practically zeroed. Now, however, these same families suffer a repercussion (for the entire period) equal to approximately 1,3 percent of expenditure. And for this segment of the population, they are above all the ones who have an impact increases in electricity and gas, which in the four summer months exceeded the value of the 150 euro bonus, the strengthening of the decontribution and the revaluation of pensions.
Household spending +3,7 per cent in 16 months
Over the entire period considered, it is estimated that the average expenditure of all households, taking into account the support measures, increased by about 3,7 per cent. Without these measures, the average impact on household budgets would have been higher, equal to 6,9 per cent, of which 4,8 points attributable to the energy sector. Overall, therefore, support interventions accounted for about 46 per cent (3,2 points) the increase in spending linked to inflation.
For the first decile (the one with the lowest level of spending) inflation would have led, in the absence of supportive policies, to an increase in spending of around 10,9 per cent, 4 points more than the national average and more double the impact on the tenth decile (that of the richest households). This is due to the fact that the largest increases concerned basic necessities (electricity, gas and food), which greatly affect the spending of the poorest subjects.
From the supports "a significant redistributive effect"
The amount of resources that families have benefited from since June 2021 is estimated at approx 27 billion. Overall, writes the Upb, “the support measures have produced a significant redistributive effect”, reducing the impact of inflation on households by first decile of about 88 percent (9,6 points) and bringing it to a level equal to about a third of the average (1,3 points against 3,7).
Also the richest families they still receive significant resources (for example, 10,4 per cent go to the tenth decile). This is explained by the fact that these nuclei consume more energy and therefore benefit most from interventions price reduction in absolute terms. For example, the cut in excise duties on fuel destined for the tenth decile is worth around 2,6 per cent of the total resources distributed, while that which benefits the poorest decile does not go beyond 0,4 per cent. Although to a lesser extent, the same phenomenon also concerns the reduction of system charges on electricity and gas and the cut of VAT on gas.
Inflation: different trends in the various sectors
The first tensions due to the high cost of living were felt in June 2021 and - explains the PBO - and from then to September 2022 the general consumer price index increased by 9,6 percent. However, the trend in inflation was very different depending on the category of goods considered. The index that recorded the greatest growth is that linked to housing expenses, which includes expenses for energy utilities (+36,2 per cent). The increase in the price of energy goods was also reflected in the electricity aggregate transport expense (+11,2 per cent), while the prices of foodstuffs they amassed overall growth of 11,7 percent.
Over the past four months, the sector relating to housing costs has continued to grow steadily; transport prices, on the other hand, continued to rise until July and then decreased in the last two months and food prices increased every month at an almost constant rate.
Go toUPB infographic.
