Slow down, without too many surprises, theinflation in Italy but less than the rest of Europe. According to the national statistics institute, the consumer price index rose in December of 0,3% on a monthly basis (from +0,5% in November) e 11,6% on an annual basis (from +11,8% in the previous month). The slowdown on a trend basis, inflation is mainly due to the prices of energy goods which, while maintaining very sustained growth, pass from +67,6% in November to +64,7%. The data for Italy comes after those of Germany, Spain e France all decreasing. And with prices falling in major EU economies, the European Central Bank may choose to adopt less aggressive interest rate policies in the upcoming meetings.
According to Istat's preliminary estimates, on average, "in 2022 consumer prices recorded a growth of +8,1% (+1,9% in 2021), marking the largest increase since 1985" when it reached +9,2%.
Inflation in Italy: the shopping cart is also slowing down
Also improving shopping cart, i.e. the prices of food, home and personal care products, but slightly: from +12,7% to +12,6%. As well as products with a high frequency of purchase which mark a +8,5% from the +8,8% in November. In any case, consumer staples remain at record levels not seen since 1983.
The purchasing power of households increases, but savings decrease
It should also be noted that the purchasing power of households, held back by the growth in prices, nevertheless grew by 0,3% compared to the previous quarter, explains the institute. While the household income female consumers increased in nominal terms by 1,9% compared to the previous quarter, while final consumption grew by 4,1%. It reduces the propensity to save, “estimated at 7,1%, down 1,9 points from the previous quarter” and “dropped to lower levels than in the pre-Covid period”.
The deficit/GDP ratio improves
It also improves the deficit/GDP ratio: in the third quarter of 2022 the ratio was equal to -4,7%, an improvement compared to -6,2% in the same quarter of 2021. Istat communicates it, adding that in the first three quarters of 2022 the deficit/GDP ratio is was equal to -5,5%, an improvement compared to -8,7% in the corresponding period of 2021. In the third quarter, the primary balance of the Public Administrations was negative, with an impact on GDP of -0,7% ( -2,8% in the third quarter of 2021).
