Inflation arbiter of the future: tomorrow on FIRSTonline the hands of the economy explain how and why

The economic scenarios are hanging by the thread of theinflation. If it were to go down as quickly as it quickly jumped up and reached the headlines (and horrors) of the news, then the collateral damage (read recession and job losses) could remain contained and financial instability could return, opening a new season of stock market rises. Instead, if it were to hold out on its descent, after an initial phase of rapid decline in its annual pace, then the increase in interest rates should go beyond what is currently expected, and trigger a deep recession, with related financial risks (bad debts banks, further declines in asset prices). What does the reading of coffee grounds and statistics say today? Are we going towards the first or the second hypothesis? THE commodity prices they have fallen well, but how much of the previous increase had percolated down the branches of the supply chains to fish in the purchasing power of consumers? And how much, on the other hand, had remained on the shoulders of the margins of the companies, which had acted as shock absorbers? Just as the Fates hold the thread of human existence in their fingers, so inflation and its determinants hold the thread of the coming destinies of the economic cycle. In the background, continue the war in Ukraine, China withdraws more and more into itself, the US Presidency emerges from the mid-term elections less battered than expected, and in a small way the Meloni government he is about to pass the first budget law of his era, relying on the more than positive legacy of the Draghi government. The Economy hands of November 2022 examine the case of the duration of the high temperature of prices and evaluate at what point is the downward phase of the economic situation that started with the violent energy crisis. The historical column of analysis of the state of health of the economy, edited by Fabrizio Galimberti e Luke Paolazzi, from tomorrow Saturday 12 November only on FIRSTonline.